In an effort to curb the European Union’s reliance on imported oil and gas, the European Commission is preparing to introduce a binding electrification target for 2040. This proposal, expected to be unveiled on 17 July as part of a broader energy package for the post-2030 period, is currently detailed in a leaked draft of the commission’s Electrification Action Plan. While the specific numerical target remains blank in the current document, the initiative marks a significant strategic pivot.
The commission’s draft highlights the vulnerability of the bloc to external energy shocks, noting that the recent crisis in the Middle East underscored the dangers of dependence on foreign fossil fuels. During that 111-day period, the EU spent an additional €50bn on fossil-fuel imports, a recurring risk that officials now aim to mitigate. Instead, Brussels wants to speed up electrification in transport, buildings and industry, describing it as a matter of “sovereignty”, competitiveness and energy security.
Projections from the commission suggest that aggressive electrification could replace approximately two-thirds of the current EU gas demand and cut oil consumption in half by 2040. Such a transition would potentially reduce the bloc’s import bill for fossil fuels by roughly €200bn over the same timeframe. Currently, electricity comprises only 23 percent of the EU’s final energy consumption—a figure that has seen little improvement over the last decade despite the rapid expansion of renewable power sources.
The draft compares Europe’s progress unfavorably to other global economies, noting that electrification rates in Japan, South Korea, and China have already surpassed 30 percent. In a broader historical context, the EU’s electrification rate has remained largely stagnant since the early 1990s. The document identifies the current high cost of power as a primary obstacle that must be addressed to facilitate this transition.
