While visiting an online longevity calculator might feel like a morbid or uncomfortable exercise, these tools are essential for anyone looking to secure their financial future. No one enjoys contemplating their own mortality, and the results can be unsettling: either they suggest a shorter life than desired, or they indicate a long life that brings the inevitable challenges of aging. However, within the retirement planning industry, longevity is the critical X factor that cannot be ignored.
A significant issue facing many Americans is a lack of basic longevity literacy. While most people are aware that the average life expectancy at birth in the United States is roughly 80 years—slightly higher for women and lower for men—fewer realize that life expectancy actually increases as one ages. For instance, if you reach age 50, your life expectancy rises to 82 for men and 85 for women. Retirement planners, however, are not interested in these averages. They are concerned with the possibility that a client might live to 90, 95, or even 100. A comprehensive retirement plan must account for every scenario, including the possibility of living significantly longer than expected.
Laura Mattia, a certified financial planner in Sarasota, Florida, emphasizes that she does not plan to a life expectancy, but rather to a longevity risk. She explains that life expectancy is merely the median, meaning that roughly half of the population will outlive it. Consequently, planning to the median is essentially planning to run out of money half the time. When individuals attempt to plan for retirement on their own, they often gravely underestimate their own longevity. A DIY planner might assume they will die by 80, using figures meant for birth, which is far too low for anyone who has already reached adulthood.
Many people also rely on flawed indicators, such as the age at which their parents or grandparents passed away. Gal Wettstein, associate director of health and insurance at the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, notes that when your parents died is not a strong predictor of your own longevity. Previous generations were more likely to smoke and lived in an era when conditions like cancer and heart disease were far more lethal. As Jeyaraj Vadiveloo, a professor and director of the Janet and Mark L. Goldenson Center for Actuarial Research at the University of Connecticut, points out, many ailments that killed previous generations are now manageable.
Older Americans also frequently misjudge their own health. A 60-year-old managing hypertension or cholesterol with daily medication might conclude they are in poor health and will not live much longer. However, federal data shows that roughly three-quarters of Americans over 60 suffer from hypertension, meaning that having such a condition does not necessarily make someone less healthy than the average person. A recent TIAA Institute survey on longevity literacy confirmed this disconnect, as only about one-third of respondents correctly identified that a 65-year-old woman is likely to live to 87.
Longevity calculators can help bridge this knowledge gap, though experts advise using them with caution. While they are not precise predictors of an individual's death, they offer a glimpse into how a group of people with similar profiles might fare. Craig Copeland, director of wealth benefits research at the Employee Benefit Research Institute, notes that these tools tell you when a group like you is likely to die. More importantly, as Vadiveloo suggests, the value of these calculators lies in identifying controllable behaviors—such as exercising, eating well, and driving safely—that can extend one's healthy years.
The stakes are particularly high for couples. According to the Center for Retirement Research, there is an 8.7% chance that one member of a couple currently aged 65 will live to 100; for a couple aged 25, those odds rise to 15.7%. Jeff Farrar, a certified financial planner in Shelton, Connecticut, typically writes retirement plans that cover couples to age 94. He supplements these calculations by asking clients about their family history and their own perception of their health. If a client believes their health is better than average or if there is a history of longevity in the family, he may adjust the plan to extend even further, ensuring the financial strategy remains robust regardless of how long they live.
A typical 60-year-old might take two or three medications a day to manage hypertension and cholesterol. Maybe they’ve already survived a health scare.
“Lots of people will think that they are unhealthy because they have high blood pressure, or something like that,” Wettstein said. “That doesn’t mean you’re less healthy than the average.”
