Following a summer defined by record-breaking temperatures and extreme weather episodes, meteorologists are turning their attention to a naturally occurring, supersized El Niño phenomenon. While this cyclical event is not caused by climate change, scientists anticipate it will exacerbate the warming of a planet already impacted by fossil fuel emissions, while simultaneously intensifying extreme weather events.
Experts note that El Niño occurs every two to seven years, and current projections suggest that 2026 or 2027 could become the hottest years on record as a result of this boost.
The United Nations' climate agency has warned that this specific event is forecast to be the strongest since comparable records began four decades ago. The UN chief has described the current global situation as a "danger zone of extreme weather." According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the phenomenon is expected to "intensify steadily" and "dominate climate patterns" starting from August, with predictions that it will remain "very strong" until February.
WMO chief Celeste Saulo recently stated in Geneva that if the current trajectory continues, the event may be stronger than anything recorded since monitoring began. While the peak is expected toward the end of this year, the knock-on climate impacts are projected to persist well into 2027.
Europe is not expected to face the most direct or severe consequences of the phenomenon, but experts stress that this does not mean the continent will be unaffected. The Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) notes that while indirect impacts are currently under study, the interaction between El Niño and Europe’s already exceptionally warm climate system requires significant attention.
The Mediterranean region, in particular, does not experience a simple one-to-one cause-and-effect link; rather, the signal is seasonal, sometimes nonlinear, and influenced by other factors such as conditions in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
According to guidance from the European Commission, this strong El Niño could potentially flip typical seasonal patterns. Instead of the colder-than-normal autumn temperatures often associated with the region, Europe may experience warmer-than-normal conditions, with that warmth building toward the spring of 2027.
However, the CMCC highlights that historical El Niño events have occasionally been associated with colder-than-average conditions in parts of northeastern Europe.
This is often linked to higher pressure over Scandinavia, weaker westerlies, and a southward shift of the Atlantic storm track, which can favor wetter conditions over the Mediterranean and France, while creating drier conditions over northwestern Europe and Norway.
The increased risk of extreme weather, such as wildfires or floods, remains a primary concern. Following a historically hot summer and rising average temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea, experts suggest El Niño could already be contributing to strong rainfall this autumn.
Davide Faranda, a researcher at France’s CNRS Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences, explained that the warming of the seas leads to expectations of very heavy rainfall when atmospheric conditions are conducive to weather disturbances.
Meteorologists emphasize that distinguishing the influence of El Niño from other factors remains a significant challenge. Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, deputy scientific director of the Climatology Department at Météo France, noted that weather conditions next winter will depend on a combination of interacting effects, including what occurs in the North Atlantic Ocean.
Laurianne Batté added that other factors will have a significant impact on the average seasonal climate and could potentially offset any effects of El Niño, which remains just one piece of the jigsaw in understanding Europe's changing climate.
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