The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) has warned that the danger of Russian military action against NATO member states is on the rise. While an all-out invasion of a NATO country is considered "highly unlikely," the agency stated that such a scenario cannot be entirely ruled out.
Thomas Ahrenkiel, the head of the DDIS, addressed these findings during a press conference held on Thursday to present an updated assessment of the Russian threat. He noted that as the conflict in Ukraine enters its fifth year, European nations remain on high alert for Russian interference, particularly as Moscow seeks to target Kyiv's Western allies.
According to the intelligence assessment, there is a low but steadily growing risk that Russia might launch a limited military strike against one or several NATO countries that share a border with Russia. Such an action would likely be a desperate measure intended to force European nations to redirect resources away from Ukraine. However, the agency emphasized that any such military buildup would require several months of preparation and would be difficult for Russia to conceal.
Ahrenkiel clarified that the agency does not anticipate a conventional Russian military attack specifically against Denmark. Nevertheless, he highlighted that Russia’s increased risk-taking behavior does have implications for Danish security, primarily through the use of "hybrid attacks."
The DDIS reports that Russia is expected to intensify these hybrid tactics, which have historically been used to sow fear and erode public support for aiding Ukraine. These operations have evolved beyond psychological warfare to include concrete sabotage against defense companies and railway lines used for military transport. Furthermore, the agency warned that future Russian activities could include destructive cyber attacks aimed at crippling critical societal infrastructure.
