Sweden is set to vote on Sunday in an exceptionally close election that could see the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD) enter government for the first time if the country's rightwing parties secure a majority.
Opinion polls show the centre-left opposition alliance holding a narrow lead, with Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats positioned as the favorite to become prime minister again after four years in opposition. However, her bloc's advantage has shrunk considerably in the final days of the campaign.
On the right, coalition leader Kristersson has promised ministerial posts to the SD if he is returned to power. This marks a further step from a previous agreement that granted the SD significant influence over government policy, particularly regarding crime and immigration.
The Swedish vote comes shortly after Germany's nativist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) secured first place in key state elections, and as Marine Le Pen leads the polls for the upcoming presidential vote in France.
Legal and civil rights experts have warned that a rightwing victory involving the SD could further damage Sweden's long-held reputation as a global champion of human rights, which they say has already deteriorated under the current administration.
"What we have seen in the past four years is huge changes when it comes to policies on crime and immigration," said John Stauffer, legal director at Civil Rights Defenders. "That is also the concern moving forward into the next mandate period: that this government will continue with a clear aim to further decrease the number of people coming to Sweden, the number of people who can get protection, and also that as many people as possible with migrant backgrounds leave Sweden – either by force or voluntarily."
The SD's manifesto includes pledges to cut immigration further, revoke permanent residency permits, and introduce "anti-Swedish sentiment in legislation on incitement against ethnic groups." One of their primary campaign slogans is a promise to "make Sweden Sweden again."
Despite recent policy shifts—such as the deportation of teenagers, lowering the age of criminal responsibility, and sending 14-year-olds to adult prisons—Stauffer noted that many voters and politicians still view Sweden as a "champion of human rights and a champion of the rules-based world order where human rights is an important part." However, he added, "it is quite clear that the Sweden Democrats do not have that ambition. They don't see Sweden as an important player on these issues on human rights. So there will be less focus on this and Sweden contributing to developing the judicial framework around human rights."
Stauffer warned that "the negative trend will continue with SD in government, the view from abroad of Sweden will continue to deteriorate, less and less will be seen as a champion of human rights, but as any other country maybe. For some time Sweden has been seen as the exception."
In an effort to win back voters, Andersson's Social Democrats have also shifted to the right on issues of crime, immigration, and integration. Stauffer explained that a victory for the left is unlikely to result in a rollback of these hardline policies. "With a Social Democrats-led government, many of the things we see as problematic are not going to be rolled back. But maybe negative development will not continue in the same way," he said.
With polls extremely tight and record early voting expected, the performance of smaller parties could prove decisive. The tiny Liberals, who are currently part of the governing coalition, could be crucial for the right's ability to form a majority. Liberal leader Simona Mohamsson has controversially cosied up to SD leader Jimmie Åkesson in recent months. On the left, turnout for the Centre party will be highly significant. The small leftwing party has gained ground in the polls, particularly in Stockholm municipality, where it is challenging the Moderates to become the second-largest party.
Bo Petersson, a political science professor at Malmö University, observed that the SD has already won the debate on immigration among mainstream Swedish political parties. "The mainstream parties have taken the restrictive immigration politics and then there isn't so much for SD to say 'we are unique and stand for this'," Petersson said. "They have been a very clear part of the establishment."
Fredrik Furtenbach, a senior political correspondent for public broadcaster Sveriges Radio, noted that a rightwing victory would represent a "big breakthrough" for the SD, likely resulting in several ministerial posts. If the rightwing coalition loses, Furtenbach expects an internal debate among the centre-right parties over "whether they allowed the Sweden Democrats to get too close."
The primary issues driving voters in this election are healthcare, law and order, immigration, and Sweden's economy. Following intense televised debates between party leaders, which concluded on Friday night, election results are expected on Sunday night, though final coalition talks to form a government could take weeks or months.
