Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s coalition has suffered another state-level setback, losing control of the government in Negeri Sembilan to two rival political coalitions, a month after a similar defeat in Johor. In Saturday’s election, the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition won 18 of the 36 seats in the state’s legislative assembly and was set to form government with the pan-Malay Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition, which won seven seats. Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) pact, which had ruled Negeri Sembilan in coalition with BN prior to this weekend’s election, won the remaining 11 seats, down from 17. Readers should note that this report is based on current events and you have reached the limit of 2 free articles this month.
Speaking on Saturday night, BN Chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi thanked voters for putting their trust in BN’s candidates and stated that an electoral understanding between the two coalitions would “result in the formation of a stable government.” Zahid said the two coalitions would now have further discussions to finalize the formation of the state government before seeking an audience with the state ruler Tuanku Muhriz Tuanku Munawir. “Our responsibility begins tonight … the message is clear. The people want stability that has been missed,” Zahid said, as per Channel News Asia.
The state election was called after months of political and constitutional uncertainty in Negeri Sembilan. In late April, BN lawmakers withdrew their support for the state’s Chief Minister, Aminuddin Harun, due to his handling of a complex crisis involving the state’s monarchy. This eventually precipitated the collapse of the PH-BN state administration and the dissolution of the legislative assembly on June 5. The victory for BN and PN marked another significant setback for PH, following a similarly disappointing result in the Johor state election on July 11, when the coalition saw its representation slide from 12 of 56 state assembly seats to just eight. BN formed the government after winning 48 of 56 state assembly seats, up from 40 at the last election in 2022.
It also augurs a further widening of the rift between BN and PH at the federal level. The two coalitions formed an unlikely federal partnership after a close general election in 2022, which brought together two parties – Anwar’s People’s Justice Party (PKR) and the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), the main component of BN – that had been fierce rivals for years. The two parties are almost certain to revert to their old rivalry at the next general election, which must be held by 2028 but, in light of the recent results, could be called earlier. Anwar said in May he would consider calling a snap general election if the divisions within the ruling coalition became too much to manage.
According to political analysts, UMNO/BN’s revival has been driven by a Malay-Muslim unity narrative that has eaten into the support base of PH. Since the 2018 general election, when UMNO/BN was turfed out of power for the first time since independence, Malay ethnic politics has been unusually fragmented, with PN seeking to usurp UMNO’s status as the primary defender of Malay interests. But Negeri Sembilan saw fruitful cooperation between pro-Malay forces. In the run-up to the polls, UMNO/BN came to an “understanding” with component parties of PN, especially the Islamist party PAS. In order to avoid splitting the Malay vote, BN contested 25 seats, while PN component parties contested the remaining 11. Cooperation between UMNO and PAS has historically proven effective in consolidating the Malay-Muslim vote and reducing vote-splitting in rural constituencies and was crucial in pulling voters away from PH on Saturday.
Pro-Malay forces were also aided by the growing disillusionment with PH, both at the state and federal levels. While frustration with Anwar’s leadership has been building for some time, it reached a tipping point over the past year due to a string of corruption scandals, including reports of widespread misconduct at the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission. James Chin, a specialist in Malaysian politics at the University of Tasmania, told a Malaysian news outlet that PH also suffered from more local shortcomings. These included the recent political crisis in Negeri Sembilan, and a perception that its state administration had failed to address key concerns among its constituents.
In a post on X, Norman Goh of Nikkei Asia, who covered the election campaign, said that the two words he heard most often from dissatisfied voters were “arrogant” and “disconnected.” “Whether those perceptions are fair is another debate, but politics is driven as much by perception as reality,” he said. “Many felt the government had become complacent and was no longer listening to everyday concerns.” In particular, Chin said, the Democratic Action Party (DAP), a major component of PH that has traditionally been associated with Malaysia’s ethnic Chinese minority, had failed to address concerns among Chinese voters about anti-non-Malay policies at the federal level. In a shock defeat, Transport Minister Anthony Loke, the DAP’s secretary general, lost his seat to BN’s Siow Kong Choon. DAP also shed support in Johor last month, and in the state election in Sabah in November, the defection of urban Chinese voters away from the DAP toward Sabah-based parties helped account for PH’s poor showing.
Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at Singapore Institute of International Affairs, told the South China Morning Post that the DAP would need to do some serious “soul searching” after the defeat, including potentially by distancing itself from PH. “By continuing to associate themselves with this government, they are asking for trouble and will continue this losing streak,” Oh said. The limits of cooperation between BN and PN is uncertain, given the personal rivalries that continue to exist between them. However, their effective cooperation in last week’s election could mark an end to the Malay fragmentation that opened up a political space for PH, with baleful implications for Anwar and his coalition. “If UMNO and PAS lock arms for the next general election,” Chin predicted, “PH will be driven back into its urban fortresses.”
