On February 28, 2026, the first day of the war in Iran, three missiles struck the southern city of Lamerd, leaving a devastating path of destruction. Touted by manufacturer Lockheed Martin as a pinpoint, long-range ballistic missile of the future, the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) has become a centerpiece of U.S. military modernization, drawing billions of dollars in investment. However, an in-depth investigation by conflict monitor Airwars, alongside analysis by weapons experts, suggests that the weapon's first suspected combat deployment has revealed severe risks for civilians when used near populated areas.
The London-based nonprofit Airwars, which has tracked civilian casualties from military operations for over a decade in places like Syria, Iraq, Gaza, and Ukraine, mapped the damage radius of the Lamerd strikes. Its findings indicate that the three missiles detonated midair over a local sports complex and two residential neighborhoods, killing at least 21 civilians, including seven children, according to Iranian officials. The analysis revealed that the lethal range of the weapon extended far beyond its immediate detonation point, killing people as far as 50 meters (164 feet) away and causing visible damage more than three times that distance.
Visual evidence from Lamerd on February 28, 2026, depicted scenes of smoke rising from damaged buildings, fire trucks illuminating ruined roads, heavily pockmarked vehicles, and injured children receiving treatment at local hospitals. Streets, buildings, and vehicles were heavily scarred with a distinct blast pattern that weapons experts identify as highly consistent with the PrSM's unique tungsten pellet dispersion.
Unlike its predecessor, the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), which has been used for decades and travels approximately 300 kilometers (186 miles) before shattering into steel fragments or submunitions, the PrSM is engineered for greater range and a different payload. It can strike targets more than 499 kilometers (310 miles) away. Crucially, the PrSM is designed to explode midair, dispersing tens of thousands of dense tungsten pellets at high speeds in all directions. Because tungsten possesses an exceptionally high density and melting point, these pellets maintain their shape upon detonation, making them highly lethal and capable of penetrating soft armor.
Six weapons experts, including two former military officials, reviewed the evidence and concluded that PrSMs were almost certainly the weapons that hit Lamerd. They dismissed the likelihood of Israeli or Iranian munitions being responsible. The human toll of the strikes was concentrated in residential and recreational spaces. One of the missiles detonated directly above the Shahid Naimi Sports Hall. The resulting blast wave and pellet spray killed seven civilians, mostly children, according to Iranian state media and open-source materials verified by Airwars. Among the victims were three teenage girls who had been playing volleyball and a woman who was smoking a hookah outside her home. The reach of the detonation was so wide that it damaged a local school located approximately 170 meters (557 feet) away from the sports hall.
The U.S. military has acknowledged firing PrSMs during its operations in Iran but has repeatedly denied responsibility for the Lamerd strikes. On March 1, the day after Lamerd was hit, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) posted an image on X showing what munitions experts identified as a PrSM being launched. Three days later, CENTCOM publicly lauded the "historic first" use of the PrSM in Iran, though it did not specify the locations of the strikes. However, as international scrutiny of the civilian deaths in Lamerd intensified, a CENTCOM spokesperson issued a statement denying that U.S. forces launched PrSMs or any other weapons into Lamerd on February 28, asserting that American forces do not target civilians.
In its defense, CENTCOM suggested that footage of one of the Lamerd strikes pointed to an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile. However, weapons experts quickly disputed this claim, noting that the missile captured in local security camera footage did not match the Hoveyzeh, which features a distinct rounded engine. The Israeli military also ruled out its involvement, stating that its forces did not conduct strikes as far south as Lamerd on the war's opening day. Experts added that Israel is not known to possess missiles designed to detonate midair in this manner.
When presented with the findings from Airwars, CENTCOM reiterated its denial, stating its position was based on an earlier internal review of the day's operations. Furthermore, in May, CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper told Congress that the military was investigating only a single incident of civilian casualties resulting from U.S. fire—a strike on an Iranian school in Minab.
Despite the controversy and warnings from military analysts, global demand for the PrSM has surged. Following the strikes in Iran, the Pentagon secured a contract worth more than $4 billion with Lockheed Martin to quadruple the missile's production rate. Other international allies are also investing heavily in the system. The United Kingdom announced in June that it had allocated 130 million pounds ($177 million) to acquire the weapon. Australia, which initially purchased the missiles in 2025, committed billions of more dollars to the PrSM program in April.
Weapons experts have strongly cautioned against deploying the PrSM near populated areas due to its wide-area fragmentation pattern. Michael Meier, a former U.S. Army adviser on the laws of war, remarked, "You would be hard-pressed to find a reason to use the PrSM in a densely populated area." Wes Bryant, a former Pentagon adviser on precision warfare and civilian harm mitigation, emphasized that the weapon's proper use "should be reserved for things like large concentrations of enemy personnel with hard and soft armor." Trevor Ball, a former U.S. Army explosives expert, also warned of the missile's indiscriminate potential in urban settings, stating, "It will kill people outside their homes who aren't protected by walls."
It is unclear who or what was the intended target in Lamerd. An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps compound is located nearby, but satellite images showed no damage there.
A separate blast over the Tal-e Khandagh neighborhood killed 2-year-old Avina Barzegar, who was playing in her yard. Airwars estimates the pellet that struck Barzegar traveled 50 meters from the blast site. It reached that conclusion by geolocating her house, based on a video showing its front gate, and measuring the distance from the house to the site.
