Marine Le Pen, the leader of the Rassemblement National (RN), and Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, are currently navigating significant legal hurdles that threaten their political futures. Their responses to these challenges echo a strategy frequently utilized by populist figures in the United States, Hungary, and Turkey: framing legal proceedings as an attempt to subvert the will of the people and positioning the ballot box as the only legitimate forum for judgment. This political theater, which prioritizes the perceived transparency of the ballot box over the perceived opacity of legal and regulatory proceedings, is a well-thumbed playbook that observers of modern populism recognize instantly.
In France, the pressure on Le Pen reached a critical juncture on July 7th. Following her conviction for the embezzlement of European funds, there was widespread speculation regarding whether she would be permitted to stand in the 2027 presidential election. However, just hours after an appeal court upheld her conviction, Le Pen officially announced her candidacy for the 2027 race. By choosing to contest the appeal court’s decision, she retains her presumption of innocence, allowing her campaign to proceed as if the verdict had not occurred. In her announcement, she framed the situation as a democratic choice, arguing that the French people, rather than the courts, should be the ones to judge her.
Across the English Channel, Nigel Farage faces his own set of complications, including an ongoing investigation into possible money laundering and multiple allegations regarding undeclared gifts. Farage, who maintains that he has done nothing wrong, recently announced he is stepping down from his parliamentary seat of Clacton amid a parliamentary inquiry into his alleged improprieties. In a move mirroring the high-stakes gambling of his counterparts, Farage plans to trigger a by-election and run for his own seat again. By doing so, he is essentially asking voters to validate his conduct, positioning the electoral process as a referendum on his integrity versus the regulatory system.
Emile Chabal, a professor of contemporary history at the University of Edinburgh, notes that these tactics are designed to swat aside legal and regulatory processes on the path to electoral success. However, the effectiveness of this strategy remains a subject of intense debate, particularly in France, where the political landscape is preparing for its most important electoral cycle in 2027. There are many reasons to view these arguments with skepticism, as the relationship between the populist right and corruption is complex.
Historically, French politics has been marked by significant corruption scandals. Every French president of the Fifth Republic, with the notable exceptions of Charles de Gaulle and Emmanuel Macron, has had a major corruption scandal attached to their name. Both Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy were found guilty of corruption by French courts, and they were joined by countless mayors and MPs over the years. For a long time, this level of corruption was widely tolerated by the French public, who were more concerned with ideological faultlines than political integrity. Unlike the intense public scrutiny seen in the US during the 1970s Watergate scandal or the 1990s "cash-for-questions" affair in the UK, French voters historically displayed little hand-wringing over such matters.
Yet, this tolerance has begun to dissipate. Public anger towards politicians has reached unprecedented levels, fueled by protest movements like the "gilets jaunes" (yellow vests) and the deep personal hostility many voters feel toward Macron. Le Pen and the RN have provided an effective electoral outlet for this anger, often campaigning on a platform of probity in public office. Le Pen previously stated she would not run for election while wearing an electronic tag, and for years, her party campaigned for politicians found guilty of corruption to be banned from public office for life.
However, Le Pen and the RN’s role as standard-bearers of the ordinary person’s rage against a "rigged" and "corrupt" system is now under threat. By stamping her dynastic authority on the party and blocking the rise of her young protege Jordan Bardella, Le Pen has boxed herself into a corner. Her only path forward is the ballot box, yet her chances of winning the presidency remain slim. She lacks the necessary support to win in the second round of the elections, where vote transfers from eliminated parties determine the result, and she continues to suffer from a credibility deficit compared to more mainstream politicians. As both Le Pen and Farage know from experience, it is just as possible to lose at the ballot box as it is to win, and she may have provided her opponents with a powerful stick with which to beat her.
READ ALSO: ANALYSIS: Who's who in France's 2027 presidential election race
READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: How France's two-round voting system works
