Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda issued a warning on Wednesday, stating that intelligence assessments suggest Russia is planning potential attacks on critical infrastructure within the Baltic states or Poland. President Nausėda noted that authorities are actively monitoring the risk of attacks that could disrupt the country’s energy and transport systems, including facilities that support Lithuania’s connections with the European electricity grid. While acknowledging that the intelligence did not identify a specific location or timing for these potential threats, Nausėda told Lithuania's BNS news agency that he could not deny the information, which concerns limited kinetic operations likely targeting critical infrastructure. He added that such provocations could involve conventional or other means.
Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs similarly warned on Wednesday that as Ukraine becomes increasingly effective at pressuring Russia, Moscow might respond with provocations against NATO’s eastern flank. Rinkēvičs stated that even without a total Ukrainian victory, Russia may indirectly test Article 5 and the response mechanisms at the Alliance and European Union levels. He emphasized that the next few months, or even the next 12 months, will be crucial for Baltic security. The three Baltic states—Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia—along with Poland, have all strengthened security around key transport and energy infrastructure in recent months in response to the Russian threat, which they say has intensified since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022.
In Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the Lithuanian intelligence warning, labeling it a fresh batch of bugaboos intended to continue brainwashing and prepare the population for further militarization. Peskov told reporters that the claims are used to create an enemy image to justify the continued movement of NATO military infrastructure into the Baltic states. Meanwhile, Poland has been issuing similar warnings in recent weeks. In late June, the Polish outlet onet.pl reported that U.S. intelligence had warned its Polish counterparts about the possibility of a Russian attack, citing potential scenarios such as strikes on critical infrastructure, incursions by Russian soldiers near border areas, and drone operations.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated on July 3 that these warnings should be taken seriously, noting that he had been issuing similar alerts for weeks. Tusk confirmed that Poland is preparing very intensively for various scenarios, noting that the coming months could be critical due to the changing nature of the war in Ukraine. He added that concerns are particularly pronounced in the Baltic states and that Poland is conscious of the dangers based on information from allies. Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski also issued a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin, stating: “We know what you are planning. Don’t do it.”
On Tuesday and Wednesday, Poland intercepted Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea that the Polish government said were conducting surveillance of air defense systems, despite remaining outside Polish territorial waters. Gen. Raimundas Vaikšnoras, Lithuania's chief of defense, confirmed that the military had deployed additional forces to help protect strategic infrastructure. He warned that Russia’s rhetoric appears to serve a broader purpose of eroding public trust in state institutions, the military, and the government. Poland had previously intensified infrastructure protection following a November attack on rail systems blamed on Russia.
On Monday, the European Union stated that Russia’s FSB Center 16 had conducted cyberespionage and sabotage against defense industries and critical infrastructure across Europe, including a December attack against a Polish combined heat and power plant that supplied heat to nearly 500,000 customers. Furthermore, a report from the International Institute of Strategic Studies suggested that Russia likely used shadow ships to launch drones over Europe, which repeatedly disrupted civilian aviation between 2024 and 2026. The region is also under strain from stray Ukrainian drones, which have reached Baltic countries as Ukraine ramps up attacks on Russian energy export ports. In mid-May, Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa resigned over the government’s handling of incidents involving suspected Ukrainian drones crossing into Latvian territory. Additionally, in late May, residents in Vilnius, Lithuania, were pictured sheltering in underground parking garages as authorities warned of unidentified drone activity.
