Brazil heads into Sunday's presidential runoff with the two candidates locked in an exceptionally tight race, according to final public opinion surveys. Senator Flavio Bolsonaro holds a slim lead in the latest polling, though the figures suggest a contest that remains too close to call.
The ABTG/Nexus poll places Bolsonaro slightly ahead at 50.5 percent against 49.5 percent for the incumbent, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. A separate survey from CNT/MDA, published by the news portal Poder360, shows the right-wing challenger with 50.7 percent compared to 49.3 percent for Lula. This 1.4-percentage-point gap falls within the survey's margin of error, indicating a technical tie. When broader voting intentions are considered, the same poll found Bolsonaro at 46.3 percent and Lula at 45 percent, with 2.9 percent of voters remaining undecided. A third survey conducted by Datafolha reported the candidates tied at 50 percent each.
The upcoming vote follows the October 4 first round, where Bolsonaro secured 47.03 percent of valid votes, leading Lula's 45.16 percent, though neither candidate reached the majority required for an outright victory. The intensity of the campaign was visible on Saturday as both camps held massive street rallies. In Rio de Janeiro, supporters gathered at Copacabana beach, where Lula waved a large national flag before traveling to Sao Paulo. Addressing his supporters, Lula remarked, "The people must choose: either someone who kisses the national flag, or someone who kisses the American flag."
Meanwhile, Bolsonaro appeared in Belo Horizonte, the capital of the bellwether state of Minas Gerais, accompanied by hundreds of motorcyclists wearing yellow national football shirts. He pledged to cut government spending, address crime, and construct 500,000 prison places. Bolsonaro, whose father, Jair Bolsonaro, is serving 27 years for an attempted coup following his 2022 loss to Lula, later traveled to Rio to meet with his supporters. The candidates concluded their final televised debate on Friday night with sharp exchanges, as Lula criticized the senator's lack of experience, while Bolsonaro accused the president of presiding over a "broken country."
