A new global health risk assessment published in The Lancet warns that the malicious use of artificial intelligence and nuclear war represent the most severe dangers to humanity, potentially leading to extinction by the year 2100. These two factors sit at the peak of a pyramid comprising 17 major threats to human health, which also include challenges such as climate change, antimicrobial resistance, pandemics, income inequality, and a range of health issues such as tobacco, obesity, and mental health.
The findings were released by the newly formed Lancet Commission on 21st-century global threats to health, a multidisciplinary group of 37 experts specializing in security, technology, economics, and health. To evaluate these risks, the researchers utilized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as a primary metric, comparing the potential impact of each threat from 2025 to 2100 across 204 countries and territories. This metric effectively measures the number of healthy years of human life that could be lost under both best- and worst-case scenarios, providing a framework for governments to understand the necessity of immediate action.
The study estimates that the cumulative burden of these 17 threats ranges from 1.02 billion to 23.1 billion DALYs. For perspective, the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in approximately 500 million DALYs. While obesity currently accounts for the largest cumulative expected amenable burden, the Commission emphasizes that nuclear conflict—encompassing both the immediate impact of missiles and secondary consequences like nuclear famine—and the malicious use of AI, including the development of bioweapons, carry distinct risks of human extinction in the next 75 years.
Presented on Sunday at the World Health Summit in Berlin, Germany, the report aims to provide governments with tools to prepare for these challenges. The researchers clarified that their work does not intend to rank threats or dictate policy priorities, but rather to establish a dynamic, science-based process for analyzing global risks that will be updated annually as new data emerges. The Commission explicitly rejects the current "competitive approach" of addressing challenges in isolation, calling instead for a "holistic action framework grounded in science, human rights, and solidarity."
Among its primary recommendations, the Commission urges national governments to invest in "threat-ready health systems" and support "breakthrough solutions," such as carbon removal technologies and nuclear fusion. Furthermore, the experts advocate for regular risk monitoring to be presented to international organizations like the UN and the G20, encouraging a unified global response to prevent potential crises from escalating.
