Alaska's US Senate race is shaping up to be a significant contest, with Democratic candidate Mary Peltola posing a substantial challenge to incumbent Republican Senator Dan S Sullivan. The election's complexity is amplified by the presence of another Republican contender, Dan J Sullivan, whose identical surname has caused consternation among the state's GOP. Both candidates named Dan Sullivan will appear consecutively on the primary ballot, a situation that has drawn criticism from Republicans. However, political observers suggest that Senator Sullivan's primary threat comes not from his namesake, but from Peltola, a Democrat who has twice won election to Alaska's US House seat and is now aiming to unseat him in the November general election.
Peltola, described by some as a "unicorn" in Alaskan politics, is seen as a unique candidate capable of flipping the Republican-held Senate seat. Despite Alaska having not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 2008, the Democratic party believes Peltola is their best chance to gain control of Congress. Her potential victory would be a significant step towards Democrats retaking control of Congress for the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency.
According to Scott Kendall, an election law attorney who has worked for various candidates, Peltola's strength lies in her alignment with Alaskan interests. "The reason Mary Peltola has a chance is not because, necessarily, Democrats are surging in Alaska," Kendall stated. "It’s that Mary Peltola, you know, she’s very pro-oil and gas development. She’s good on issues that matter to Alaskans’ pocketbooks, and that makes her just a bit of a unicorn."
Alaska's political landscape is distinct due to its unique economy, heavily reliant on oil and gas production. This leads to Democrats in the state often advocating for expanded production, a stance that contrasts with national Democratic concerns about fossil fuels and the climate crisis. While Alaska has historically leaned Republican, particularly in presidential elections, power has shifted at the state level, with bipartisan coalitions currently controlling both the state house and senate. Registered voters in Alaska consist of about two-thirds independents, 23% Republicans, and fewer than 12% Democrats.
Senator Dan S Sullivan, who has represented Alaska since 2015, won his seat in 2014 by defeating Democratic Senator Mark Begich. He has largely adhered to the Republican party agenda, distinguishing himself from Alaska's senior Republican senator, Lisa Murkowski, who has gained national recognition for her independence from Donald Trump.
Peltola first broke the Republican hold on Alaska's federal delegation in 2022 following the death of long-serving Republican Congressman Don Young. She won a special election to complete his term, becoming the first Alaska Native to serve in Congress, and subsequently won a full term. In 2024, she narrowly lost her bid for re-election to Republican Nick Begich III.
Despite Alaska voting for Trump by over 13 percentage points in 2024, Peltola is considered the Democratic party's strongest candidate for the Senate race in a state targeted by Democrats to regain a Senate majority. Peltola's campaign emphasizes her moderate approach and slogan "fish, family, freedom," which highlights the cultural and economic importance of fishing in Alaska, particularly for native communities, and addresses the issue of bycatch that harms commercial and sport fishers.
Joelle Hall, president of the Alaska AFL-CIO, which has endorsed Peltola, noted the significance of fishing issues in Alaskan politics. "Fish has always been, really, a passion issue in Alaska," Hall said, crediting Peltola with elevating concerns about bycatch and the fishing industry's health.
During her tenure in the House, Peltola supported President Biden's approval of the Willow oil and gas project, a decision that drew criticism from environmentalists but was seen as beneficial for unionized workers. "We are also in the middle of a little bit of an oil and gas boom in Alaska," Hall added. "That’s because Mary Peltola brought us the Willow project with the Biden administration."
National trends may also favor Peltola. Trump's approval ratings are low in Alaska, and gas prices have risen significantly, contributing to economic concerns. Recent polls show Peltola and Senator Sullivan in a close race, with major election forecasters labeling Sullivan's re-election bid as a "toss up."
Senator Sullivan, a former Marine, previously served as Alaska's attorney general and natural resources commissioner. He has focused his Senate platform on military affairs and efforts to preserve the state's fisheries.
However, some Republicans, like former state senator Steve Frank, believe Senator Sullivan remains a more reliable advocate for the state's oil industry, especially given potential shifts in federal policy. "The federal government views us kind of like a colony, and they forget that we’re American citizens trying to earn a living up here," Frank commented, referencing federal actions to protect Alaskan lands and waters from oil drilling. "And so they tend to want to lock us up, keep us from developing our resources, and so he’s pushing back against that."
The race has seen substantial campaign spending. The Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund plans to spend $17 million to support Sullivan, while the Democratic Senate Majority PAC has invested $12 million for Peltola. Federal Election Commission filings through July show Peltola has outraised Sullivan, with $18.5 million to his $11.7 million. Peltola has $4.6 million cash on hand, compared to Sullivan's $7.3 million.
Additionally, two Super PACs have collectively spent nearly $2 million to support other candidates who could potentially draw votes away from both Peltola and Sullivan. The Republican Party's attempt to remove Dan J Sullivan from the ballot, arguing he was a "sham" candidate intended to confuse voters, was unsuccessful.
In other Alaskan elections, Nick Begich III is running for a second term in the House against independent Bill Hill. Alaskans will also elect a replacement for Governor Mike Dunleavy, who is term-limited.
Kendall predicts that on specific Alaskan issues, the differences between Peltola and Senator Sullivan might be less pronounced than expected. "I think she would probably frustrate a lot of Democrats, if I’m being honest. I think she would be, to national Democrats, what Lisa Murkowski is to national Republicans," Kendall suggested, anticipating Peltola might resist national Democratic initiatives that conflict with Alaskan interests, such as designating large areas as wilderness preserves.
