Despite repeated assurances from Washington that the Strait of Hormuz remains open for commercial shipping, maritime industry experts warn that international transit through the vital waterway has effectively ground to a halt. The stark contrast between official military declarations and the reality on the water comes amid escalating tensions and a series of targeted strikes in the region.
The U.S. military's Central Command (CENTCOM) reiterated on Tuesday evening that "despite Iranian aggression, the Strait of Hormuz remains open for commercial vessel traffic." This statement aligns with assertions made repeatedly by the Trump administration over the past two weeks. However, CENTCOM also acknowledged the severe threat environment, noting that Iran has launched more than 30 attacks on commercial vessels since the conflict began, endangering hundreds of innocent mariners and undermining the freedom of navigation.
President Trump, who has frequently declared the strait open, escalated his rhetoric on Wednesday. He threatened to destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant for every new attack directed at a ship in the strategic waterway. Despite these warnings and military encouragement for vessels to utilize a southern route through the strait, shipping companies are largely refusing to take the risk.
Data from the region supports the industry's hesitation. The Joint Maritime Information Center in Bahrain, a military coalition that includes the United States, reported that commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz fell to a three-week low on Tuesday. On that day, trackers identified only three commercial ships transiting the strait: two cargo vessels and a Chinese-owned tanker named the Hsin Ocean. Furthermore, a Lloyd's List analysis revealed that between July 13 and 19, only two ships utilized the U.S.-backed southern route, which hugs the coast of Oman. Both of those vessels traveled "dark," meaning they deactivated their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders to avoid detection.
Dimitris Maniatis, the CEO of Greek maritime risk management firm Marisks, explained that ship crews have been highly reluctant to transit the strait since the breakdown of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire that lasted less than three weeks. Maniatis clarified that while there is no physical obstruction blocking the waterway, and local trade continues unaffected, international shipping has stopped. "If we're talking about large ocean-going, internationally owned-and-operated merchant vessels, nothing is going through," Maniatis stated.
According to Maniatis, U.S. military support for ships attempting the Oman route is limited to air support as they travel in convoys. He argued this measure is insufficient, pointing out that vessels continue to be struck in the southern corridor despite the Navy's efforts. "There is no guarantee of safe passage," he added. This risk was highlighted earlier in the week when the Greek shipping giant Dynacom, one of the last major international operators willing to navigate the strait, had to evacuate the crews of two ships after they were struck off the coast of Oman. In response to the growing danger, South Korea's Sinokor Group has reportedly begun offering mariners six months of extra pay to complete a return voyage through the strait, according to a Bloomberg report on Tuesday.
The maritime threat is also expanding beyond the Persian Gulf. In Yemen, Iran-aligned Houthi rebels announced this week that they would block Saudi Arabia from using its Red Sea ports to transport energy products to Asian markets. This blockade targets the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern entrance to the Red Sea. Like the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb is a narrow chokepoint vulnerable to attacks. Historically, these two straits have carried approximately 30 percent of the world's annual oil supplies. Following the Houthi announcement, at least five commercial vessels were observed turning around on Tuesday as they approached the Bab el-Mandeb.
When asked about the Houthi threats on Tuesday, President Trump dismissed the idea of an active blockade in the Red Sea, stating, "If something like that happens, we take care of that." However, Maniatis countered that the U.S. has yet to successfully secure the Strait of Hormuz. He noted that ship owners, operators, and especially crews do not feel safe, and that a similar sense of dread is now spreading to the Bab el-Mandeb. The psychological toll on seafarers has been severe, with Maniatis describing crew members as "absolutely destroyed" and unwilling to continue working on ships. According to the United Nations' International Maritime Organization, at least 17 commercial mariners have been killed in 61 separate attacks in the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S. and Israel initiated their joint war on Iran at the end of February.
"There's so many people that are absolutely destroyed," he said, referring to ship crews in the region. "We see a lot of crew members that have had long careers, but also junior members of the crew, where their psychology is absolutely destroyed. They don't even want to be on ships anymore."
