Developing nations are currently facing significant uncertainty as several of the world’s largest economies have yet to detail their future climate finance plans. This lack of transparency has left recipient countries struggling to coordinate development strategies and secure necessary private sector investment to supplement public funds.
International agreements aim for industrialised nations to provide $300bn annually to developing countries by 2035, supported by an additional $1tn from other sources. These funds are intended to assist nations in adapting to extreme weather events and transitioning toward low-carbon economies. However, many wealthy governments have failed to establish specific targets for financial contributions beyond the immediate future, creating a damaging planning gap.
Analysis conducted by the NRDC and E3G thinktanks indicates that the developed world is generally on track to reach the $300bn annual goal, known as the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), which was established at the Cop29 conference two years ago. Projections suggest that by 2030, these nations should be providing approximately $229bn per year, with multilateral development banks expected to contribute $185bn of that total. Joe Thwaites, international climate finance director at the NRDC, noted that while most countries are in a strong position regarding their commitments, their reluctance to make these plans public is the primary issue.
If the European Union maintains its current contribution of roughly $36bn annually, and accounting for existing pledges from the UK, Canada, and other smaller nations, a funding shortfall of approximately $7bn remains. Thwaites suggested that potential shifts in US leadership or future commitments from Japan and Australia could help bridge this gap. While some projections from Carbon Brief warned that a lack of new commitments could lead to a 70% cut in bilateral finance, Thwaites described such an outcome as highly unlikely, expressing confidence that nations will soon formalize their pledges.
Major economies, including France, Germany, and Australia, have yet to publicly announce their new climate finance goals. This silence is particularly noted in the case of Australia, which is serving as a Cop host. While the UK reduced its climate finance earlier this year, other nations have provided varying responses. A spokesperson for France’s AFD aid agency confirmed a target of €6 billion in annual climate finance and €800 million for biodiversity for the 2025–2027 period. Japan stated it remains fully committed to its obligations under the Paris Agreement through the Japan International Cooperation Agency and funds like the Green Climate Fund, though it has no new financial pledges to announce at this time.
