While Portugal continues to deal with the aftermath of depression Bruna, a new weather system named Charles is moving toward the Iberian Peninsula. According to the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA), this depression is expected to lead to a significant deterioration in weather conditions, characterized by torrential rain and winds that could surpass 100 km/h. The storm is of subtropical origin, having formed at lower Atlantic latitudes, specifically in the areas where tropical cyclones typically occur.
The impact of Storm Charles is expected to be felt in Madeira from late Tuesday, the 10th, through the morning of Wednesday, the 11th. Forecasts indicate persistent, heavy rainfall with accumulations exceeding 100 mm within a 12-hour window, particularly in mountainous regions. Winds are expected to blow from the southwest with gusts between 80 and 100 km/h, potentially reaching 130 km/h in higher elevations. Sea conditions will also deteriorate, with southwesterly waves of 3.5 to 4.5 meters expected along the south coast of the island.
On the Portuguese mainland, the effects of the depression are anticipated to begin late Wednesday morning. The IPMA forecasts wind gusts between 100 and 120 km/h, with the possibility of locally higher speeds. Heavy rain is expected across much of the country, and coastal areas south of Cabo Carvoeiro should prepare for southwesterly waves ranging from 4 to 6 meters starting Wednesday afternoon. The Azores archipelago is not expected to be impacted by the passage of the storm. The IPMA has announced plans to issue orange-level warnings, which denote a meteorological situation involving a moderate to high risk, and has not ruled out upgrading these warnings in some regions following future model updates.
In Spain, the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (Aemet) identifies Wednesday as the most severe period for the weather, with Thursday remaining unstable but showing signs of reduced intensity. Current meteorological models, including the European (ECMWF) and American (GFS) systems, indicate that the depression's initial track will run between the north of the Canary Islands and the Madeira archipelago. The next part of its path remains uncertain, though available data suggests the core of the storm could move toward the Iberian Peninsula via the Gulf of Cadiz or between Sines and Cabo Carvoeiro.
Charles is the third named storm of the 2026/2027 season, following Adam, which remained over the Spanish Mediterranean, and the current depression Bruna. Bruna, which will remain almost stationary to the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula until Friday, is an independent system from Charles. In Madeira, Bruna caused widespread damage over the weekend, resulting in flooding, leaving ten people homeless, and leaving one person missing. It also forced dozens of flights to be cancelled at Funchal airport.
Because of the approaching storm, the National Authority for Emergency and Civil Protection (ANEPC) has urged the public to adopt preventive measures and avoid risky behavior. ANEPC warns in particular of the risks associated with traveling along the coastline, advising people to avoid staying in areas exposed to rough seas and to comply with all banned or restricted access areas that are properly signposted. Another appeal is for people not to cross flooded areas, whether on foot or by car, because of the risk of people and vehicles being swept away, particularly into holes in the road surface or open manholes.
The authorities also recommend extra care when traveling or staying in wooded areas because of the possibility of falling branches and trees, and keeping away from run-down buildings, retaining walls, and embankments, where landslides may occur. As part of prevention, they also advise the clearing of rainwater drainage systems by removing leaves and other objects that could block the flow of water. Another measure recommended is the securing of loose structures, such as scaffolding, billboards, and suspended structures, as well as objects outdoors and on balconies and windowsills, such as flowerpots or garden furniture. At home, ANEPC also advises that shutters and windows be closed and reinforced, especially those facing into the wind. On the roads, Civil Protection is calling for defensive driving, at reduced speed and with attention to the possible formation of standing water.
