Voters in Quebec are heading to the polls in a pivotal provincial election that is highly likely to sweep the separatist Parti Québécois (PQ) back into power for the first time in over a decade. The party has campaigned on a central pledge to hold a referendum on independence from Canada by 2028.
A victory for the PQ on Monday in the province of approximately nine million people is expected to reignite intense debates over language, identity, and federal-provincial relations. However, political analysts note that the party's resurgence is driven less by widespread desire for secession—which most voters do not support—and more by its leader's hardline stance on identity and social issues.
The 49-year-old party leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, is an Oxford-educated lawyer and polyglot who utilizes TikTok to reach voters. He has positioned himself as a modern, Gen-X alternative to former Premier François Legault, who resigned earlier this year. St-Pierre Plamondon has adopted right-wing rhetoric, blaming immigration for rising crime, housing shortages, and overcrowded schools. He has promised to significantly reduce immigration levels and ban conspicuous religious symbols for both teachers and students, while dismissing left-wing critics from the Quebec Solidaire party as "woke."
According to radio host Patrick Lagacé, many Quebecers who traditionally view themselves as left-leaning have hardened their views on social issues like systemic racism and religious accommodation. Lagacé observed that many voters feel alienated by the modern left's focus on identity, finding themselves more aligned with the right on these specific social matters.
Despite his popularity, St-Pierre Plamondon's commitment to holding an independence referendum within his first mandate remains his biggest electoral liability. An overwhelming majority of Quebecers oppose a referendum at this time, particularly with Canada engaged in a trade war with the United States. This anxiety was evident in last year's federal election, when Quebec voters favored Liberal leader Mark Carney over the separatist Bloc Québécois due to Carney's aggressive stance against the Donald Trump administration.
The PQ has navigated the Trump factor strategically. St-Pierre Plamondon initially stated he would not hold a referendum while Trump was in office, defusing the issue to keep the campaign's focus on immigration. Furthermore, the party has capitalized on a heavily fractured electorate. Poll analyst Philippe Fournier explained that the Parti Québécois is benefiting from a massive vote split because those who oppose the PQ cannot agree on an alternative candidate. This division is especially pronounced in the right-leaning nationalist regions outside Montreal, such as Quebec City, where the upstart Parti Conservateur du Québec has gained traction.
While the PQ is favored to win, polls show the party with around 30% support, which is below the typical threshold required to secure a majority government. Nonetheless, St-Pierre Plamondon is already preparing for a clash with Ottawa. He has suggested defunding the office of Quebec’s lieutenant-governor, the British Crown’s representative, and vowed to introduce legislation to sever the province's ties with the monarchy—a symbol separatists view as oppressive to Canada's French-speaking minority. Additionally, he recently criticized Carney's proposal to increase national immigration rates, calling it an "abuse of power" that would harm French-language services in Quebec.
Though the PQ will probably form the next provincial government, it remains unclear what sort of mandate it will have. Polls have the party hovering at roughly 30%, somewhat below the likely threshold for a majority government.
For a man who trades on his relative youthfulness, St-Pierre Plamondon’s attacks on the monarchy have the whiff of anachronism – the kind of thing the PQ did in its 1970-era heyday.
