In the crucial bellwether state of Minas Gerais, supporters of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are engaged in a final, determined effort to secure victory before this Sunday’s presidential runoff. With polls indicating a tight race, activists are focusing on converting voters who either abstained in the first round or supported other candidates, including the far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
Individual voters are reporting success in changing minds. Jodersson Diego, a 33-year-old dance teacher from Belo Horizonte, managed to persuade a student who had previously voted for Flávio Bolsonaro to switch her support. Diego explained that he avoided arguments, instead focusing on clarifying misconceptions about the president. Similarly, others like Naiara Boroni and Nikolas Domingues have been working within their own families and social circles to gain votes for the incumbent.
This grassroots mobilization is central to Lula’s strategy as he attempts to overcome the first-round lead established by Flávio Bolsonaro on October 5. Lula, who is running in place of his father, the former president Jair Bolsonaro—currently serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest—has seen his momentum grow despite being the initial favorite. While Bolsonaro won 5 million more votes than his father did in 2022 and his party dominated legislative races, the gap in the polls has narrowed significantly to a statistical tie, with Bolsonaro leading only by fractions of a percentage point.
Political scientist Manoel Leonardo Santos of the Federal University of Minas Gerais noted that Lula’s campaign has performed better throughout the runoff period. The incumbent faces a challenge with high abstention rates, which reached 21% in the first round and disproportionately affect his base of lower-income and older voters. Minas Gerais, the nation's second-largest electorate, remains critical, as no candidate has historically won the presidency without carrying the state. Lula finished almost five percentage points behind Bolsonaro in the state.
Supporters of the Bolsonaro campaign are also pushing for high turnout. At a recent event in Minas Gerais, which featured a 23ft inflatable figure of his father and a video call appearance by the senator, governor-elect Cleitinho Azevedo urged supporters not to become complacent. Meanwhile, some voters, such as 44-year-old pharmacist Magda Aparecida Araújo, expressed support for Bolsonaro’s defense of traditional family values.
The campaign atmosphere has been defined by sharp contrasts. While Lula’s supporters, including 17-year-old student Ester Nascimento, emphasize the need to prevent a return of the far right, others are reacting to controversies surrounding the senator. Concerns have been raised regarding Flávio Bolsonaro’s rhetoric about changing the constitution, which led some voters like 25-year-old Douglas Pereira Melo to switch from supporting a far-right influencer to backing Lula. The senator also faces multiple federal police inquiries, including allegations of money laundering, a dispute with footballer Richarlison over a mansion, and reports of a 2020 pandemic-era barbecue attended by sex workers and lobbyists.
Lula has attempted to bolster his appeal by approving a package of benefits, including increased cash transfers and backing a shorter work week for 30 million employees. As the runoff approaches, political experts suggest the race remains too close to call, though the momentum appears to have shifted as Bolsonaro’s rejection rate has climbed while Lula’s has fallen slightly.
The senator is under investigation in two federal police inquiries, one into what happened to the £20m he was caught on tape asking a disgraced banker accused of corruption to provide for a biopic about his father, and another into alleged money laundering and a possible business partnership with a close friend, the betting-sector businessman and lawyer Willer Tomaz.
