An upcoming legislative election in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt could produce the first far-right state governor in the country's post-World War II history. The anti-migration Alternative for Germany, or AfD, currently holds a significant lead in several polls, presenting a major political challenge to Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his unpopular national government as they struggle to combat what Merz describes as "widespread moroseness."
Securing control of a state government would represent the most significant achievement in the AfD's 13-year history, delivering a symbolic blow to Merz and sending shockwaves through the German political landscape. Wolfgang Merkel, a political science professor with the WBZ Berlin Social Science Center, noted that an AfD victory and subsequent government formation would represent "breaking a taboo in Germany." He added that modern Germany has previously stood as "an exception" in Europe for having no radical right-wing parties governing at the national, state, or major city levels.
The center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), currently led nationally by Merz, has governed Saxony-Anhalt since 2002. Located west of Berlin, the region is among Germany's less prosperous states and is home to 2.1 million of the country's 83.5 million people. However, the CDU face steep challenges. In last year's national election, the AfD achieved its strongest postwar performance by securing 20.8% of the vote, cementing its position as Germany's largest opposition party. The party has shown particular strength in the former communist east, including Saxony-Anhalt, and has surged in national polls by capitalizing on public frustration with a sluggish economy and issues beyond its core anti-migration platform.
In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD is aiming for an absolute majority in the state legislature. Achieving this would allow the party to bypass the "firewall" established by mainstream political parties that refuse to collaborate with them. The regional branch of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt is classified by Germany's domestic intelligence agency as a proven right-wing extremist group, an accusation that the party strongly denies.
Campaigning under the slogan "Everything is possible," 35-year-old AfD gubernatorial candidate Ulrich Siegmund expressed confidence during a campaign event in the small town of Moeser. "This is a historic opportunity that we have here in Saxony-Anhalt," Siegmund told reporters, adding, "We will write history here." Among his primary objectives, Siegmund lists "the deportation of people who are illegal, a deportation offensive and above all dropping the incentives for why people come here and exploit our social system." He also plans to initiate a process to withdraw Saxony-Anhalt from the regional public broadcaster over concerns regarding "disinformation."
While the AfD celebrated its first and only election of a county administration head in neighboring Thuringia in 2023, winning an entire state would be a far more consequential victory. Germany's 16 states hold substantial authority, particularly over education and security. In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD plans to permit homeschooling, which is currently illegal across Germany. The party also pledges to ban schools from flying the rainbow flag, mandate the flying of the national flag, oppose the use of taxpayer funds for Ukraine, and advocate for lifting sanctions against Russia—though foreign policy decisions remain outside the jurisdiction of state governments. Siegmund sought to reassure voters, stating, "No one here needs to be afraid, quite the contrary. Every honest person in Saxony-Anhalt will benefit from an AfD-led government."
Siegmund's primary opponent, incumbent governor Sven Schulze of the CDU, warned of severe consequences from his party's offices in the state capital of Magdeburg. Schulze argued that the AfD "wants the past back" and warned that the state would face "isolation" if they took power. He highlighted the economic progress and reduction in unemployment achieved in Saxony-Anhalt since German reunification in 1990, noting that many foreign-born residents work in local hospitals and businesses. Schulze warned that the far right's opposition to foreign-born workers would present "a huge problem for Saxony-Anhalt." He emphasized his refusal to work with the party, stating, "AfD does one thing — it describes problems. But it never has a solution for a problem."
Even if the AfD emerges as the strongest party, its path to governing remains highly uncertain. If the party fails to secure an absolute majority, professor Wolfgang Merkel believes they will be unable to form a government due to a lack of willing coalition partners. This scenario would likely force Schulze to attempt to assemble a multi-party coalition with smaller left-wing parties, which Merkel warned could lead to public criticism that mainstream politicians are merely "clinging to power."
The national fallout of the Saxony-Anhalt vote remains to be seen, especially with subsequent elections scheduled for September 20 in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. While Merkel suggests Saxony-Anhalt may be too small to trigger an immediate national shift, a major loss for mainstream parties would reinforce the narrative of their decline. Chancellor Merz recently urged his cabinet to push forward with economic reforms to counter the political drift, stating, "We must get out of this climate of glumness and anger. Together, we must shake off this widespread moroseness that has long paralyzed our country."
