Former Labor foreign affairs minister Bob Carr has launched a sharp critique of the $368bn Aukus agreement, characterizing the pact as a “platonic lie” and a “diplomatic fig leaf.” According to Carr, there is a growing consensus among officials in both Canberra and Washington that the United States will never actually build and sell nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, despite the public commitments made by both nations.
“It’s now conventional wisdom in Washington as well as in Canberra that we’re not going to get the subs, and we’ll be assembling some alternative,” Carr stated. He argued that the project is effectively a fiction, noting that the immense budgetary pressure on other defense platforms is being exacerbated by the decision to funnel such significant resources into a single project that may eventually be rendered obsolete by emerging military technology, such as lessons learned from the war in Ukraine.
The current Albanese government maintains that the Aukus project is moving forward as planned, with officials noting that US President Donald Trump has pledged his full support. Labor originally threw its backing behind the acquisition of nuclear submarines while in opposition, following negotiations involving then-prime minister Scott Morrison, then-US president Joe Biden, and then-UK prime minister Boris Johnson.
However, skepticism regarding the deal has intensified due to ongoing production delays and significant cost blowouts within the US navy. The agreement is contingent upon the US president signing off on the transfer of submarines, a process that is subject to the domestic requirements of the US military. Under the current roadmap, the first Virginia-class nuclear submarine is scheduled to arrive in Australia by 2032, with subsequent boats arriving every four years until the bespoke SSN Aukus model becomes available in 2042.
The criticism from Carr follows a recent crowdfunded public inquiry that labeled the Aukus plan as the “worst, riskiest and most costly defence decision ever made by an Australian government,” while calling for the project to be terminated immediately. Despite these concerns, Defense Minister Richard Marles reaffirmed this week that the agreement is “absolutely happening.” Marles described the initiative as the largest industrial project in Australia's history and the most significant leap in military capability since the navy’s inception over a century ago, emphasizing its role in both national security and the creation of thousands of high-skilled, lifelong jobs.
