Middle East Gulf crude oil exports, excluding Iran, recovered to pre-war levels in September as exporters successfully routed shipments around the volatile Strait of Hormuz.
According to data from the maritime tracking firm Kpler, at least 16.5 million barrels per day (mbd) of crude and condensate were exported from the region between September 1 and September 28. This volume matches the pre-war average, excluding Iran, and represents a significant increase of 10.5 mbd compared to the monthly average recorded in March.
To achieve this recovery, exporters have dramatically shifted their shipping logistics. Currently, 40% of these exports bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely, compared to just 17% before the conflict broke out. Pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have emerged as critical alternative pathways, while the remaining crude that still traverses the strait is mostly transferred between tankers offshore. These export figures also include shipments sent via the Red Sea, which has become an increasingly popular route for exporters seeking to circumvent Iran's attempted blockade of the strait. Prior to the conflict, approximately one-fifth of global oil supplies flowed through the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite the recovery in export volumes, international oil prices remain elevated far above their pre-war baselines. On Monday morning, the international benchmark Brent crude futures for December delivery were trading at $102.25 per barrel, compared to around $72 before the conflict. The US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, was trading at $90.50 per barrel. The shipping disruptions in the region have caused significant economic anxiety worldwide, forcing nations to search for alternative energy supplies and driving fuel prices upward.
Iran continues to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, warning that unauthorized vessels risk being attacked. However, shipping traffic has persisted, and alternative infrastructure is operating at maximum capacity. Saudi Arabia's recovery was bolstered by the reopening of its East–West pipeline, which links eastern oil fields to the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea. Kpler analyst Amena Bakr noted that this pipeline had been shut down on September 11 following strikes launched from Iraq, but it successfully resumed operations on September 22. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates continues to utilize its own bypass route, a pipeline connecting Abu Dhabi's oil fields to the Fujairah terminal on the Gulf of Oman.
This stabilization of exports coincides with a decision by the seven core members of OPEC+, which includes Russia, to keep their oil production targets unchanged for November during a meeting on Sunday. According to OPEC's September report, these seven nations produced approximately 25 million barrels of crude oil per day in August, marking an increase of 630,000 barrels per day from July.
