Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva holds a slight lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a series of major opinion polls published on the eve of Sunday's first-round presidential election. The surveys point to an extraordinarily tight race, with a second-round runoff between the leftist incumbent and his right-wing challenger appearing highly probable.
Under Brazil's electoral regulations, a presidential contender must secure more than 50 percent of valid votes in the first round to win outright. This calculation strictly excludes blank and null ballots. If no candidate achieves this threshold on Sunday, the two leading candidates will proceed to a head-to-head runoff election scheduled for October 25.
A nationwide survey conducted by the MDA Institute for the National Transport Confederation (CNT) placed Lula at 47.8 percent of valid votes, while Bolsonaro garnered 42.1 percent. In a simulated second round, the CNT/MDA poll recorded Lula leading Bolsonaro by 47.3 percent to 43.1 percent. This survey sampled 2,007 individuals between September 30 and October 2, carrying a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.
A separate survey from Datafolha showed Lula securing 45 percent of valid votes in the first round against 42 percent for Bolsonaro. Other candidates included Caiado at 4 percent, Santos and Cury each at 3 percent, and Zema at 1 percent. For a projected runoff, Datafolha placed Lula at 47 percent and Bolsonaro at 46 percent, a result considered a statistical tie within the survey's two-percentage-point margin of error. Datafolha interviewed 4,006 respondents across October 2–3.
Meanwhile, a poll by Quaest indicated the tightest opening round, with Lula at 46 percent of valid votes to Bolsonaro's 45 percent. Cury, Santos, and Caiado each registered 3 percent. In a simulated second-round scenario, Quaest placed Bolsonaro slightly ahead at 44 percent to Lula's 42 percent. This poll surveyed 3,702 individuals across October 2–3 and had a two-percentage-point margin of error.
Lula is locked in a tight battle against Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, a right-wing senator and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The elder Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup following his failed 2022 re-election bid.
Brazil's president is seeking a fourth and final term in office. He has warned voters that the country’s sovereignty is at stake amid pressure from US President Donald Trump. Trump has not endorsed Flavio Bolsonaro but has stated he is "very closely" watching the Brazilian election.
