August 25, 2026, marks nine years since nearly 1 million Rohingya were forced to flee their homes in Myanmar following a campaign of genocide and crimes against humanity perpetrated by the country's military. The majority of those who fled sought refuge in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, which has grown into the world's most crowded and dangerous refugee camp, now housing over 1.3 million Rohingya refugees. However, breaking the cycle of displacement requires more than just humanitarian relief; it demands a fundamental political reckoning within Myanmar.
The current prospects for a safe, permanent return are deeply complicated. Not only does the oppressive Myanmar military remain in power, but armed groups like the Arakan Army now control the territory that comprises the Rohingya homeland. This situation is compounded by a long history of repeated repatriations that failed because they did not address the underlying political realities that made expulsion and genocide possible in the first place.
The mass exodus of 2017 was not the first time the Rohingya were forced to seek refuge in Bangladesh. In 1978, approximately 200,000 Rohingya fled across the border before being sent back to Myanmar. A second major wave occurred between 1991 and 1992, when roughly 250,000 people fled, with the majority repatriated in the years that followed. Each time, they were sent back without citizenship, rights, or justice, and without a voice in the decisions that impacted their lives. Nothing that forced them out had changed, so the next expulsion was only a matter of time. Having run this experiment twice, each turn of the cycle has sent more of them home to the same danger, and more of them fleeing it again.
While United Nations agencies, Western governments, and donor nations frequently treat the situation as a humanitarian crisis, the root of the issue is political. Humanitarian organizations perform the vital task of providing food and basic necessities to keep refugees alive, but these services are only temporary measures. At the same time, international donors frequently call for Rohingya self-reliance while simultaneously cutting the aid upon which the refugees survive. True self-reliance remains impossible for a population that is legally barred from working, moving freely, educating their children, or governing themselves. Asking the politically excluded to stand on their own is like asking a bound person to swim.
A sustainable solution—encompassing a safe return home, a future for the next generation, and active political participation—can only be achieved inside Myanmar. The military system that stripped the Rohingya of their citizenship under the 1982 citizenship law is the same regime that shot democratic protesters in 2021 and continues to bomb villages across the country today. Since the 2021 military coup, communities throughout Myanmar have experienced the same state-sponsored violence that the Rohingya have endured for decades.
Consequently, the fate of the Rohingya is deeply intertwined with the country's Spring Revolution. The inclusive federal democracy championed by the resistance, which promises equal citizenship and legally protected rights, represents the only viable framework for a permanent return. To achieve this, Rohingya individuals, community members, and political organizations must be granted equal and meaningful participation in all political dialogues concerning the future of Myanmar.
The severe challenges currently plaguing the refugee camps—including human trafficking, sexual violence, forced conscription, and child abduction—stem directly from the statelessness of the Rohingya. By treating only the symptoms of the crisis rather than its cause, the international community has failed to address this systematic political exclusion. To alter this trajectory, several concrete measures must be taken.
First, Bangladesh and the international community must allow refugees in the camps to work and support their families, especially as international funding dwindles. Second, the Rohingya must be allowed to prepare politically for their eventual return. This includes permitting the formation of political organizations within the camps, training young people to organize politically, and allowing children to access education using the official Burmese curriculum. Third, donor countries must sustain vital funding, including monthly food rations from the World Food Program, until repatriation is safe and dignified. Finally, ASEAN should serve as the primary platform for Rohingya political engagement, intervening diplomatically while strictly avoiding engagement with the military junta responsible for the genocide.
A view of the Iftar gathering attended by 60,000 Rohingya refugees and U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres in Bangladesh in March 2025.
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