The 2026 midterm elections have fundamentally altered the composition of the U.S. Congress, with Democrats securing a decisive majority in the Senate and capturing dozens of additional seats in the House. This shift represents one of the most substantial midterm political swings in recent decades. Despite these clear trends, the final margins of power remain uncertain, as official projections have not yet been issued for two Senate races and more than two dozen House contests. These outstanding races include districts with extremely narrow margins, potential party flips, and several contests in California and other Western states where ballot processing is still underway.
In the Senate, Democrats are set to enter next year with at least 54 seats, compared to the Republicans' 44. Two Senate races remain in limbo: the Alaska race between Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, and the Mississippi contest between GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democrat Scott Colom. The Alaska race has been rocked by a last-minute scandal regarding how another Dan Sullivan appeared on the ballot. Due to both outstanding ballots and Alaska's ranked-choice voting system—which requires a second round of counting if no candidate secures a majority—final results are not expected until 15 days after Election Day. Both the Sullivan and Peltola campaigns claim they have the upper hand. Meanwhile, the Mississippi race remains a toss-up. State officials report that thousands of mail-in ballots are outstanding and can legally arrive within five days of the election, alongside an unknown number of affidavit ballots that require eligibility verification. Both Colom and Hyde-Smith have expressed confidence in their eventual victory.
While the dozens of red districts flipped by Democrats defined the night, several Republican House candidates are attempting to resist the trend. In Maine’s 2nd District, a pro-Trump area, the race between former GOP Gov. Paul LePage and Democrat Matt Dunlap will proceed to a ranked-choice tabulation starting Nov. 9, as LePage fell just shy of the 50% mark. Although Dunlap conceded, the process continues. In Florida’s 9th District, Democratic Rep. Darren Soto is defending his seat against Republican Dan Green; this is the only district among four targeted by Florida Republicans in pre-midterm redistricting that has not yet been projected as a Democratic win. Louisiana’s 6th District, which was redrawn following a Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act, is now significantly redder. Because no candidate is close to a majority under the state's jungle primary system, the race could head to a runoff next month.
Numerous other House districts held by Republicans remain unprojected, including several that Democrats hope to flip. In Colorado’s 4th District, firebrand Rep. Lauren Boebert faces Democrat Eileen Laubacher. Florida’s 7th District features a contest between Republican Ryan Elijah and Democrat Bale Dalton, following Elijah's primary victory over scandal-plagued incumbent Rep. Cory Mills. In South Florida, GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart is fending off a challenge from Democrat Nicole Locklin in the 26th District, while the 27th District sees a battle between GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar and Democrat Eliott Rodriguez. Salazar previously warned that President Trump's immigration policies could alienate Latino voters.
Other uncalled House races include Minnesota’s 1st District, where GOP Rep. Brad Finstad is in a tight battle against Democrat Jake Johnson. Under state law, a recount can be requested if the margin is less than 0.25%. In Tennessee’s 4th District, GOP Rep. Scott DesJarlais is defending his seat against Democrat Victoria Broderick. North Carolina also has several outstanding races: the 3rd District (GOP Rep. Greg Murphy vs. Democrat Raymond Smith), the 5th District (GOP Rep. Virginia Foxx vs. Democrat Chuck Hubbard), the 7th District (GOP Rep. David Rouzer vs. Democrat Kimberly Hardy), and the 10th District (GOP Rep. Pat Harrigan vs. Democrat Ashley Bell). Additionally, South Carolina’s 2nd District features longtime GOP Rep. Joe Wilson against Democrat Zyon Khalifa, and Arizona’s 2nd District remains a rematch between GOP Rep. Eli Crane and Democrat Jonathan Nez.
In California, several races lack projections due to ongoing ballot counts or, in some cases, because both candidates belong to the same party, meaning the results will not impact the overall congressional balance. These include the 4th District (Rep. Mike Thompson vs. Eric Jones), the 7th District (Rep. Doris Matsui vs. Mai Vang), the 23rd District (Rep. Jay Obernolte vs. Tessa Hodge), and the 40th District (Rep. Ken Calvert vs. Rep. Young Kim). Alaska’s At-Large District, featuring GOP Rep. Nick Begich and independent Bill Hill, also requires further tabulation under the state's ranked-choice system. In Washington, the 4th District race between Republican Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky remains uncalled, as does the 5th District race between GOP Rep. Michael Baumgartner and Democrat Carmela Conroy. Finally, Louisiana’s 5th District is headed to a December runoff between Democrat Patricia Moore and Republican Gabe Firment for the seat currently held by Rep. Julia Letlow, who was elected to the Senate this week.
