A highly risky and rare jet fighter duel has resulted in a Ukrainian-operated F-16 shooting down a Russian Su-35 heavy fighter. Operations of this nature, involving aircraft worth more than one hundred million US dollars in total, are extremely rare due to the high stakes for both the equipment and the pilots. According to Russian sources, the Ukrainian military successfully executed this aerial engagement at the beginning of the week, forcing the Russian pilot—who had reportedly been harassing Ukrainian forces for some time—to eject before his aircraft went down. A video of the burning fighter jet was subsequently published by Ukraine’s Third Army Corps.
While the Ukrainian military has remained silent on the exact mechanics of the shootdown, Russian military bloggers have described the loss as a meticulously planned Ukrainian trap. According to the Z-channel Vojevoda, the operation involved three F-16 fighters and a Patriot air defence system positioned just 60 kilometers from the line of contact. In this account, one Ukrainian jet simulated dropping guided bombs while the other two provided cover, with the Patriot’s radar illuminating the target. Another prominent blogger, Ilia Tumanov (known as Fighterbomber), echoed this version, calling the battle interesting and expressing regret that the Russian side acted too stereotypically. Alternative theories suggest that the F-16s guided the Patriot to the target, allowing the radar to remain switched off until the final moments to avoid becoming a highly valuable target for Russian counter-attacks.
The Su-35 is a heavy multirole 4++ generation fighter developed by the Sukhoi company as a modernization of the Su-27. Though only twelve prototypes were built in the early 1990s, development resumed in 2005 under the designation Su-35BM. The aircraft is known for its exceptional maneuverability, active and passive detection systems, high supersonic speeds, and long range. It can carry up to eight medium- and long-range air-to-air missiles, including the R-37M which has a range of up to 320 kilometers, as well as a wide array of guided bombs and air-to-ground missiles. Russia’s active fleet is estimated at 135 to 140 aircraft, which are frequently used to escort Su-34 bombers. These bombers drop between 100 and 130 guided bombs daily on Ukrainian positions, reaching a record of 5,700 bombs in January 2026. Justin Bronk, an analyst from the RUSI think tank, noted that the Su-35 is the primary aircraft for Russian air superiority, with its pilots carefully selected. Blogger Vojevoda attempted to downplay the loss, claiming Russia has plenty of these aircraft and pilots, meaning it would not impact their combat intensity.
According to the Ukrainian channel In Factum, this engagement may mark only the second time an F-16 has defeated a Su-35, following an unconfirmed incident over Kursk last summer. Official loss statistics continue to diverge significantly. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that Russia has lost 437 aircraft and 353 helicopters throughout the conflict. In contrast, the independent monitoring project Oryx, which only counts losses confirmed by photographic evidence, lists lower figures of 186 aircraft and 179 helicopters.
The aerial victory coincided with a highly successful NATO summit in Ankara for Kyiv, despite the event being overshadowed by Donald Trump’s criticisms of European allies and the collapse of the truce with Iran. Ukraine secured three major victories at the summit. First, the Alliance officially designated Russia as a long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security in its final declaration. This was signed by Slovak President Peter Pellegrini, despite efforts by the Slovak intelligence service (SIS) under Pavol Gašpar to avoid such language in its own national reports. Second, a coalition of nations pledged $70 billion in military investments for Ukraine, though Slovakia and Czechia (led by Andrej Babiš) opted out. Third, Trump agreed to license Ukraine to domestically manufacture Patriot systems.
During a joint press conference, Trump trolled Vladimir Putin’s regime by suggesting that this escalation could help end the war. He then asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky if he would visit Moscow. Zelensky replied that it would be difficult and dangerous due to the high volume of Ukrainian drones there, drawing laughter from the press. The Financial Times reported that Trump’s shifting tone has sparked cautious optimism among European allies, with one diplomat noting that Trump likes winners, and Ukraine has recently begun to win.
However, domestic production of Patriot missiles will take time. The Ukrainian company Fire Point is developing its own surface-to-air missiles, with mass production estimated to start as early as this August. When it will be ready for operational use is still unclear, according to the FT. The fact that this will be a lengthy process was also highlighted by Bloomberg, which noted that political approval for the production of Patriots is only the easier part, to be followed by technical, manufacturing and security challenges. A military expert cited by the UNIAN agency estimated that Ukraine could produce its first Patriot missile within eighteen months. It remains undecided whether they will manufacture the older PAC-2 or the more complex PAC-3 version, both of which require rare earth elements that Ukraine would likely need to source from China. Manufacturing the systems in a protective European country remains another viable alternative.
On the ground, Ukraine is successfully disrupting Russian logistics and energy infrastructure. French blogger Clément Molin calculated that Ukrainian forces targeted and hit 240 Russian transport vehicles in the first week of July, averaging 34 per day. Ukrainians are meanwhile continuing their drone campaign on the territory of the Russian Federation with the aim of deepening the fuel crisis. On Wednesday night to Thursday they hit an oil depot in Tver and another near the town of Mikhaylovsk in Stavropol Krai. The situation has gone so far that Russia has banned the export of diesel from the country.
👀 The Air Force has published a video of shooting down of Russian Su-35 fighter. pic.twitter.com/CudiAJucdm
What the Su-35 can do. Back in February, Business Insider wrote that these fighters posed a threat even to Nato, noting that Russia had further expanded its fleet during the war against Ukraine and that it was estimated to number 135 to 140 aircraft.
