Sweden is officially emerging from its recession, according to the latest government forecasts which show stronger-than-expected economic growth and a positive outlook for the labour market. Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson stated that the country’s economy is currently experiencing a boom, noting that the incoming government will be inheriting a well-prepared situation. Svantesson emphasized that Swedish households are demonstrating sufficient confidence to increase spending and that companies across various sectors are performing exceptionally well, helping the nation stand out when compared to other countries within the European Union.
Official projections for growth this year have been revised upward to 3.0 percent, an increase from the 2.5 percent forecast issued in August. While the outlook for next year has been trimmed slightly to 2.3 percent from the previously estimated 2.5 percent, the government maintains that the economy is on track to return to balance. Labour market conditions are also expected to see a gentle recovery, with unemployment projected to fall to 8.5 percent this year and reach 7.7 percent in 2026.
Despite this positive trajectory, Svantesson cautioned that the forecast remains subject to significant uncertainty. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, creating risks that energy prices may remain elevated rather than returning to normal levels. Further uncertainties cited by the government include the persistent war in Ukraine and the unpredictable economic impact of artificial intelligence. Additionally, domestic demand remains susceptible to pressures from rising interest rates. Looking ahead to the next parliamentary term, the government estimates that the fiscal manoeuvring room remains at 50 billion kronor.
