New Zealand is navigating a period of political uncertainty following a cliffhanger general election that has left the formation of the next government hanging in the balance. While the right-leaning coalition led by the National party is currently hoping to retain power, the final result will not be confirmed until the official count concludes on 27 November.
A total of 66 seats are estimated to be required for a parliamentary majority, and it remains unclear whether the left or right blocs can secure this threshold. The next parliament will feature seven parties: Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori in the left-leaning bloc, alongside National, NZ First, and Act on the right. Additionally, the Opportunity party, which has positioned itself as a centrist newcomer, could potentially hold the balance of power after crossing the 5% threshold to enter parliament with seven seats based on 6% of the party vote. National leader Luxon has previously stated he would not engage with the Opportunity party and its leader, Qiulae Wong, though he may find himself with little choice depending on the final numbers.
The complexity of the outcome is tied to the counting of nearly 400,000 special votes, which include ballots cast by overseas citizens or individuals voting outside their home electorates. These votes traditionally skew toward left-leaning parties. In the 2023 election, for instance, the inclusion of special votes resulted in Te Pāti Māori gaining two seats and the Greens gaining one, while National lost two. Given the current narrow margins, even a small shift in seat distribution could fundamentally alter the balance of power between the competing coalitions.
New Zealand’s parliament typically comprises 120 seats, allocated based on a system where voters cast two ballots: one for a candidate and one for a party. The "overhang" mechanism, a feature of the Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system, occurs when a party wins more electorate seats than their proportion of the party vote would otherwise provide, resulting in additional seats being created. This year, the strategy of encouraging voters to split their ballots—specifically to create an overhang—has been prominent. Te Pāti Māori is on track to secure five of seven Māori electorate seats using this tactic, while various right-wing groups encouraged supporters to cast party votes for Act or NZ First while backing National candidates. National leadership had cautioned against this strategic voting, yet the practice appears to have contributed to what will be the largest parliament in the country's history.
Critics have long argued that such strategic voting undermines the intent of the MMP system, which was adopted in the 1990s to move away from the skewed results of the first-past-the-post system. Despite two reports since 2012 recommending the abolition of the overhang, previous governments have not acted on these proposals. With final results not expected until late November—or potentially into December—the country faces a prolonged wait to determine the ultimate composition of its government.
Talks can’t begin until 27 November, once all the special votes are counted.
