China and the United States are emerging as key players in a growing geopolitical competition centered on nuclear energy exports, particularly in Southeast Asia. Recent developments, including China's release of its 15th Five-Year Plan for a New-type Energy System and the U.S., Japan, and South Korea's announcement of a Memorandum of Cooperation on small modular reactors (SMRs) for third countries, signal a strategic race for global leadership in nuclear energy governance and exports.
Southeast Asia faces significant energy security vulnerabilities, exacerbated by its reliance on oil imports and projected electricity demand growth of over 100 TWh by 2030, driven by data centers, electric vehicles, and industrial needs. Energy security is a major vulnerability for Southeast Asia, as highlighted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 60 percent of Southeast Asia’s crude oil passes. To cope with the disruptions, some Southeast Asian governments rolled out short-term measures to curb energy demand. However, any such effort, in response to disruptions, some Southeast Asian governments rolled out short-term measures to curb energy demand. In response, nations like Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam have set targets for operating their first nuclear reactors before 2035, while Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, and Thailand are actively considering nuclear energy, with a particular focus on SMRs.
The United States has historically linked nuclear reactor deployment to national security, with its "123 Agreements" for peaceful cooperation serving as a key diplomatic tool. In recent years, Southeast Asia has become a focal point for these agreements, mirroring China's own civil nuclear engagement in the region. While U.S. nuclear exports are primarily driven by the private sector, government programs like the Foundational Infrastructure for Responsible Use of Small Modular Reactor Technology (FIRST) and financial support from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) and the International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) aim to bolster capacity and address high upfront investment costs.
China, through state-owned entities like China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) and China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN), is also aggressively pursuing global markets. Although China's ambition to build 30 reactors in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries by 2030 has so far resulted in only one operational reactor in Pakistan (with fuel dependency on China), its cost advantage and demonstrated ability to build reactors on time and budget are attractive to Southeast Asian nations. China began civil nuclear cooperation with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2015 through its state-owned nuclear energy companies to build capacity in the nuclear energy workforce. After China’s Linglong One became the world’s first IAEA-approved land-based SMR model, it has demonstrated its ability to serve BRI countries, though its commercial operation timeline remains uncertain due to information opacity.
Russia, another major nuclear exporter via state-owned Rosatom, has been impacted by sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine, affecting its financing and logistical capabilities. This has created opportunities for China and the U.S.-led alliance.
For countries new to nuclear energy, establishing a nuclear power plant involves more than just building reactors; it requires developing a comprehensive infrastructure including regulatory frameworks, human resources, and safety culture, a process the IAEA estimates takes around 10 to 15 years. The long lifespan of reactors, coupled with decommissioning, necessitates a century of political, logistical, educational, and legal alignment with the exporting country.
Southeast Asian nations weigh multiple factors when selecting reactor suppliers, valuing U.S. technological leadership, regulatory standards, nonproliferation efforts, and safety culture. Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, and Thailand have signed 123 Agreements with the U.S., while Malaysia has an MoU for negotiations. However, China's competitive pricing and construction speed present a compelling alternative.
The U.S. has made regulatory strides in the region, with Thorcon International receiving a first-stage license from Indonesia's BAPETEN for its molten salt reactor in 2025. U.S. agencies are also facilitating regulatory alignment and market access, with the U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) funding studies in the Philippines and the Department of Commerce establishing an SMR export working group.
To overcome construction bottlenecks and enhance export competitiveness, the U.S. has formed a cooperation memorandum with Japan and South Korea. This alliance aims to create synergies and accelerate SMR deployment in third countries, particularly the Indo-Pacific. Meanwhile, China continues to expand its international market reach, with CNNC signing new cooperation agreements with major Chinese energy developers and financial institutions to bolster its global capabilities. The 15 FYP, CNNC has signed new cooperation agreements with China Energy Engineering Corporation and other major Chinese energy developers and financial institutions to bolster its global capabilities.
Southeast Asia, historically balancing economic cooperation with China and security collaboration with the U.S., is now navigating complex nuclear energy partnerships amid heightened geopolitical competition, a global energy crisis, and rapid domestic energy demand growth. The region faces the challenge of maintaining its balanced approach while securing its energy future.
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