China’s recent launch of a nuclear-capable ballistic missile into the South Pacific Ocean has triggered widespread international criticism from regional leaders, while experts view the rare test as a strategic message directed primarily at the United States.
The test, conducted on Monday from a nuclear-powered submarine, served as a demonstration of the sea-based leg of China’s nuclear triad, which encompasses land, sea, and air-based systems. According to Dominic Meagher, a research fellow at Australia’s Crawford School of Public Policy, the launch proved that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) possesses a “second-strike capability.” This means China retains the capacity to retaliate even if hit by a first strike, as its launch platforms can be deployed anywhere across land or sea.
Tong Zhao, a senior fellow with the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted that the primary message of the launch is that the PLA is evolving into a powerful military with a very strong strategic nuclear capability. Beijing described the launch as part of its annual exercises, indicating that similar tests could occur in the future. K. Tristan Tang, a nonresident fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research, agreed in an email that the launch represents a systematic move rather than an isolated event.
This missile test coincides with China’s rapid expansion of its nuclear-powered submarine fleet. A report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies reveals that China has built these submarines at a faster pace than the United States over the last five years. However, firing into international waters—particularly those protected by treaties prohibiting nuclear testing—has sparked intense backlash. The South Pacific Ocean is highly contested due to its strategic value, rich fisheries, and mineral resources.
For Pacific island nations, nuclear activities evoke painful memories of historical testing by the U.S., the UK, and France, which caused severe environmental contamination, cancers, and birth defects that persist generations later. Meagher pointed out that past outrage led to treaties like the nuclear test ban treaty and the 1986 Rarotonga accord, which established the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone. Monday’s missile landed directly within this zone. Although China ratified protocols in 1987 promising not to test nuclear weapons in the zone or threaten signatories, this test marks a departure from decades of avoided missile tests in the area. Meagher added that while U.S. forces still test nuclear missiles in the Pacific, they avoid the treaty-protected zone.
The launch drew sharp rebukes from regional leaders. Speaking in Honiara on Tuesday, Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale remarked that while China is a good friend, “this is not something a friend does” and is “not good in our region.” Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, also speaking in Honiara during treaty negotiations with the Solomon Islands, condemned the launch as “a provocative act by China which does destabilize the region.” Albanese expressed deep concern over the lack of warning, stating, “The fact that this test took place yesterday with very little notice is of real concern.”
Australia and New Zealand both stated they were not given sufficient prior notice, while Japan criticized the operation’s lack of transparency. In response, China’s Defense Ministry defended the launch on Tuesday, asserting that “China informed the relevant countries in advance, which demonstrates the openness and transparency of the Chinese military.” However, experts point to the Hague Code of Conduct, which regulates ballistic missiles and requests at least 24 hours of advance notice. Tang noted that China is not a member of this code, which is not legally binding.
Significant speculation remains regarding the specific missile used. On Wednesday, the secretary-general of Taiwan’s National Security Council stated that the weapon was a JL-2—an older submarine-launched ballistic missile—fired from waters off the southern Chinese province of Guangdong. Conversely, Chinese state media and military experts, including Shao Yonglin on state broadcaster CCTV, suggested the missile was likely a newer JL-3. Shao noted that “The JL-3’s range can strike a target on the east side of the Pacific from the west side.”
As China’s military footprint expands, experts emphasize that it must prepare for heightened global oversight. Zhao concluded that if China wants to become a major military power, it should be put under the same standards as countries such as the U.S., the U.K., and France.
Australia and New Zealand both said they were not given enough prior notice about the test, and other countries like Japan said it was done without transparency. Canberra and Wellington are two of the South Pacific's biggest powers and have grown anxious about Beijing's attempts to vie for sway in the region.
Much speculation remains around what was fired and when.
