Initial election projections in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt indicate a historic victory for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, placing them far ahead of their mainstream rivals. Although it remains uncertain whether the projected numbers will yield an absolute majority to govern alone, AfD leaders have already declared a mandate to lead the state.
According to the early projections, the AfD is on track to secure more than 44% of the vote. This puts them dominant and well ahead of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which is projected to take just 18.2%. Such an outcome would mark the first time a far-right party has won control of a German state since World War Two. In Germany, governing at the state level grants significant authority over critical sectors, including policing, local education, and cultural policies.
The party's regional leader, Ulrich Siegmund, celebrated the projected numbers as a "historic outcome" and firmly stated his refusal to govern in a coalition with any other party. Siegmund, alongside joint national AfD leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, expressed immense joy as the initial figures were released. However, the final layout of the 83-seat state parliament will dictate whether the AfD can secure a governing majority. Currently, the party is projected to win 39 seats.
The ultimate balance of power may depend on whether smaller parties manage to clear the required 5% electoral threshold to enter parliament. In particular, the performance of the populist left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is crucial; if the BSW fails to cross the 5% mark, the AfD's path to an absolute majority becomes significantly easier. While other mainstream parties maintain a strict "Brandmauer" or firewall to block the far-right from power, the BSW has offered to cooperate with the AfD on specific issues should they secure parliamentary seats.
Saxony-Anhalt, a state with a relatively small population of 2.1 million, has been a focal point of political tension. The local branch of the AfD is officially classified as "right-wing extremist" by Germany's domestic intelligence agency, a designation that Siegmund has repeatedly rejected. Despite this classification, voter turnout was exceptionally high, reaching an estimated 78%, and the projected results surpassed what earlier opinion polls had predicted.
At the AfD's election night headquarters, a jubilant crowd of supporters broke into loud cheers as the projected results flashed onto screens, later bursting into the singing of Germany's national anthem. One supporter, a man named Ollie, expressed his enthusiasm to reporters, saying, "This man gives us what no-one else can give." He added, "No matter what government, they all just promise things to get better. This is a party for the working people. It is the alternative for Germany."
In contrast, the political establishment reacted with deep concern. Lars Klingbeil, the national leader of the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD)—which currently governs nationally in a coalition that includes the CDU—described the election projections as "truly dramatic" and a clear "signal to Berlin."
The AfD has increasingly established itself as a dominant political force, currently leading national opinion polls ahead of the ruling conservatives of Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the Social Democrats. While the party's primary stronghold remains in Germany's eastern states, their success in Saxony-Anhalt follows a victory in the 2024 state election in neighboring Thuringia, where they ultimately failed to gather enough seats to form a government.
