As discussions continue regarding possible U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran following upcoming elections, retired Army four-star General Joseph Votel offered a cautious assessment of what additional bombing campaigns could achieve. Votel, who served as commander of U.S. Central Command from 2016 through 2019 overseeing military operations across the Middle East, noted that while fresh strikes could degrade Iranian capabilities, military force alone is unlikely to bring an end to the broader war.
Currently serving as the chair of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, Votel pointed out that many of Iran's key military targets have been struck in previous operations. However, Tehran has consistently demonstrated an ability to rebuild those facilities over time. According to Votel, while renewed bombing raids can buy time, penalize Tehran, and further weaken specific offensive assets, previous strikes have failed to fundamentally alter the Iranian leadership's strategic calculus or the overall trajectory of the conflict.
To effectively shift Tehran's decision-making, Votel stressed the necessity of defining a clear strategic end state for the conflict. He emphasized that the United States must articulate what ultimate victory looks like and establish a precise threshold for when military operations can be declared complete. In his view, a definitive end state must resolve key structural challenges, particularly Iran's nuclear enrichment program and the full restoration of free navigation through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Achieving those definitive objectives requires a coordinated application of all dimensions of national power rather than relying solely on armed force. Votel highlighted that military pressure must be paired with synchronized economic, diplomatic, and informational efforts to achieve lasting results. While military actions represent just one facet of national leverage, sustained pressure across every sector is critical to forcing a strategic shift in Tehran.
Evaluating current non-military measures, Votel observed that financial elements of national power are already yielding measurable progress. He pointed to ongoing naval blockades and stringent sanctions, referencing reports that Iran's clandestine ghost fleet of oil tankers has run out of oil. Although economic isolation takes time to yield full strategic results, Votel noted that maximum financial pressure is moving in a positive direction toward isolating the Iranian regime.
Addressing the broader objectives of the United States, Votel acknowledged that defining Washington's exact strategic goals has presented ongoing challenges. Nevertheless, he identified two primary core concerns driving policy: ensuring the open passage of oil and commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to help lower domestic energy and fuel costs, and curbing Iran's nuclear enrichment and weapons capabilities. He added that Iran continues to foster regional instability through foreign proxies, including its ties to Houthi rebels operating on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula.
Regarding the path toward strategy and diplomacy, Votel noted: "Well, first and foremost, I think it does take a very clear articulation of what our objectives are and then a gearing of our elements of national power, whether it's the military campaign or economic or our diplomacy, really focused on those types of things and then having the patience to kind of see that through. So I definitely think that's kind of what this looks like from a larger perspective."
When addressing what's the understanding of how well-equipped the U.S. military is to continue strikes and defend U.S. bases and partners in the Gulf, Votel drew a sharp contrast between U.S. offensive strength and defensive vulnerabilities in the region. He stated that U.S. offensive strike capabilities across the Middle East remain substantial and fully prepared to execute operations. However, he expressed concern over defensive constraints, particularly the heavy strain placed on U.S. air defense and missile interceptors.
Votel warned that conducting prolonged military operations requires sustaining defensive protection for American forces, regional allies, and critical infrastructure over time. Given previous operational strain on missile defense inventories, he cautioned that while U.S. offensive capacity is where it needs to be, defensive interceptor limits represent a potential operational constraint in any extended confrontation with Iran.
FADEL: I want to start where we heard our correspondent leave off. I mean, what, in your view, could possible new strikes do that previous attacks didn't?
FADEL: Are you seeing any of those other elements entering the fray here?
