The first ministers of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland have jointly declared that "Westminster's time is coming to an end," calling on the UK government to prepare for major constitutional change. The nationalist leaders from Plaid Cymru, Sinn Féin, and the SNP, who all advocate for their respective countries to leave the United Kingdom, met in Cardiff Bay on Monday to sign a historic memorandum of understanding asserting that no Westminster administration has the right to "block democracy."
This gathering marks the first time since the beginning of devolution that Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland are simultaneously led by first ministers who support independence from the UK. The summit was attended by Scotland's First Minister John Swinney, Wales's First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth, and Northern Ireland's First Minister Michelle O'Neill, alongside Sinn Féin President Mary Lou McDonald. All four met as representatives of their political parties.
The signed memorandum of understanding issued a direct message to observers. It stated: "For people watching across these islands – for people watching around the world – there could be no clearer sign that Westminster's time is coming to an end. No Westminster government has the right to block democracy or undermine the principle that our people will decide their own future." The document also noted that while the participating parties hold different constitutional positions, they recognize that "each nation will determine its own future in its own way and in its own time."
While the leaders presented a united front against Westminster, differences emerged regarding the timeline for constitutional votes. At a joint press conference, Scotland's John Swinney and Northern Ireland's Michelle O'Neill called for referendums, but Wales's Rhun ap Iorwerth declined to establish a specific timetable for a Welsh independence vote. Plaid Cymru has already ruled out seeking an independence referendum before the next Senedd election in 2030.
Ap Iorwerth stated that there is a "growing recognition that Westminster is not working" and that "power genuinely needs to be brought closer to people and communities." He argued that Wales deserves the power, resources, and fair treatment necessary to build its own future. When pressed by reporters on whether the memorandum meant asking Westminster not to block a Welsh referendum, ap Iorwerth maintained that the decision rests with the Welsh public, adding that the timescale would be set when the people are persuaded, describing his role as one of persuasion. Although the Welsh government currently lacks the legal authority to hold an independence referendum, ap Iorwerth expressed his desire to see that power devolved.
SNP leader John Swinney described the meeting as a "pivotal moment in the constitutional journey of the United Kingdom." He noted that democratic elections last May established a unique political landscape where the first ministers of each devolved nation believe their citizens should decide their own future, calling the principle of self-determination an "inalienable right." Swinney also went on to describe UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham as the "last prime minister of the United Kingdom," asserting that the Scottish public would choose independence if given the choice in a future referendum.
Sinn Féin's Mary Lou McDonald described the Cardiff Bay meeting as "historic," declaring that the nations have an inherent right to decide their own future and would not tolerate any prime minister attempting to take that right off the table. Northern Ireland's First Minister Michelle O'Neill acknowledged that the three nations are "distinctively different" with their own individual priorities, but emphasized that their "common cause here is that Westminster does not and will never serve our people well."
The meeting drew sharp criticism from political opponents. In Northern Ireland, where O'Neill serves in a power-sharing executive, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) deputy first minister, Emma Little-Pengelly, criticized O'Neill's participation and accused her of attempting to "weaponise the role of first minister."
In Wales, opposition parties condemned Plaid Cymru's focus on independence. Welsh Labour leader Ken Skates accused Plaid of delivering nothing since the election, claiming they "want to use power to break up Britain, weaken Wales and spend their time obsessing over more powers for their politicians." Welsh Conservative Senedd leader Darren Millar argued that the first minister should focus on the crisis within the Welsh NHS and declining standards in schools rather than "obsessing about independence." Similarly, Dan Thomas, the Welsh leader of Reform UK, criticized ap Iorwerth for failing to get a grip on NHS waiting lists and the education system while focusing on breaking up the UK.
The UK government responded to the summit by stating that the prime minister remains committed to delivering change across all four nations and "believes strongly in the union." The devolved leaders are scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Andy Burnham next month, where discussions are expected to touch upon how the devolved nations are funded.
The funding debate remains a point of contention. Welsh ministers have long advocated for a reform of the Barnett funding formula, which they argue disadvantages Wales, though Scotland is widely seen as benefiting from the current system. Before taking office, Burnham had supported changing the formula, but during a recent visit to Wales, he played down the prospects of immediate reform.
The constitutional debate also comes amid shifting signals from London. During Prime Minister's Questions on Wednesday, Burnham appeared to suggest that a second independence referendum could be held in Scotland if clear public support emerged, comparing the scenario to the border poll conditions outlined in Northern Ireland's Good Friday Agreement. Swinney initially welcomed this apparent softening of the UK government's stance, but Burnham subsequently clarified that another Scottish referendum remains "off limits." In Scotland's September 2014 referendum, voters chose to remain in the UK by a margin of 55% to 45%.
Following the joint party press conference, Swinney and ap Iorwerth held further bilateral talks in their official capacities as government leaders. The two men were expected to sign an agreement focusing on future collaboration in areas of shared interest. Unlike Scotland, the political dynamics in Wales remain distinct; ap Iorwerth, who became Wales's first non-Labour first minister following the Senedd election, has ruled out pushing for an independence vote during his party's first term. Instead, his administration plans to establish a national commission to lay the groundwork for future independence. In the interim, Welsh ministers are pushing for the devolution of powers over policing and youth justice, an area Burnham has previously indicated he is open to exploring. Ap Iorwerth remarked that Burnham still has "a lot to learn" about how devolution to a nation differs significantly from devolution to an English city or region.
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