A 66-year-old mathematical study, widely known as the 'Doomsday study', calculated that humanity would reach its end on Friday, November 13, 2026. Conducted in 1960 by Austrian-American physicist Heinz von Foerster and his research team, the findings were published in the prestigious journal Science under the provocative title, "Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026."
The researchers developed their projection by analyzing historical world population data spanning two millennia and fitting a growth curve to it. Their model suggested that if the prevailing human growth rate on Earth were to continue unchecked, the population curve would reach an infinite value by November 2026. This led the mathematicians to conclude that, purely in mathematical terms, humanity would "crush" itself through overpopulation on that specific date.
The study was intentionally designed to create a worldwide stir, with Heinz von Foerster primarily aiming to draw attention to the intensely debated issue of overpopulation at the time. Remarkably, the projected curve aligned closely with actual population figures until the early 1990s. However, after this period, global population growth began to slow significantly.
Current demographic projections now anticipate a stabilization of the world population at approximately 10 billion people. While the global population continues to grow, its rate has decelerated. Initial sharp increases were due to declining mortality rates, but later, families worldwide began having fewer children. The fastest growth rate was recorded in 1963, exceeding two percent annually, which had fallen to below one percent by 2020.
According to estimates from the United Nations (UN), the Earth's population is expected to peak in the mid-2080s at around 10.3 billion, after which it is projected to gradually decline.
This 1960 prediction joins a history of other doomsday prophecies that have not materialized. For instance, in 1910, widespread panic erupted over Halley's Comet, with newspapers warning of poisonous gases that could extinguish all life. Traders capitalized on these fears, selling gas masks, protective pills, and "comet umbrellas," but the comet passed without incident. Later dates, such as May 21, 2011, predicted by a US radio preacher as Judgement Day, and December 21, 2012, marking the end of a Mayan calendar cycle, also passed without global catastrophe.
Even scientific predictions have sometimes proven incorrect. In 1972, the study "Limits to Growth" warned of an imminent depletion of vital raw materials. However, humanity adapted by discovering new sources and developing innovative solutions, leading to many commodities becoming even cheaper.
The fundamental flaw in such predictions lies in their tendency to simply extrapolate past trends into the future, overlooking humanity's capacity to respond to problems and adapt. This principle applies to the November 13, 2026, prediction as well; human development has diverged significantly from what was calculated 66 years ago. Therefore, any thoughts of impending doom for Friday should be reconsidered.
