The rapid pace at which the United States is expending its most advanced air-defense interceptors and precision-guided weapons in the Middle East has become a significant point of tension within the Trump administration. According to U.S. military and intelligence officials familiar with internal assessments, this high rate of consumption is complicating the ongoing conflict with Iran and raising broader concerns regarding America's readiness for a potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific region.
Top military and civilian leaders are currently weighing the immediate demands of the war with Iran against the necessity of maintaining a deterrent posture against other adversaries, including China. Officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, stated that the U.S. cannot sustain the current rate at which it has been expending precision munitions. The defense industrial base is not equipped to produce missiles rapidly enough to replenish the inventory that has been fired or transferred to U.S. Central Command, leaving stockpiles under mounting pressure.
In an interview last month on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth denied that the stockpile situation had reached a crisis point. While he conceded that some munitions take longer to produce than others, he told Brennan, "We've got lots of them, we're building more than ever before." Hegseth added, "Our stockpiles are strong, and they will only get stronger in the future."
To manage inventories, U.S. commanders have increasingly shifted toward using GPS-guided bombs fitted with Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM) guidance kits, alongside Small Diameter Bombs. These precision-glide weapons allow for attacks on fixed targets at shorter ranges and serve as a substitute for long-range standoff weapons. Earlier in the conflict, U.S. forces frequently employed cruise missiles like the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) and the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile. While these remain in the arsenal, officials noted they are now being used more sparingly.
Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, told lawmakers in April that scaling up the output of high-end systems like the Tomahawk or JASSM could take one to two years as defense companies work to expand production lines. "It won't be soon enough," Paparo said. "There are finite limits to the magazine, and I have all the faith in the world that they're being employed judiciously."
Following the collapse of a ceasefire earlier this month, U.S. strikes have focused on targets closer to Iran's coastline, which reduces the need for aircraft to penetrate deeper into Iranian territory where they would face denser air-defense networks. Officials also noted limited inventories of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), which are fired from the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). The Biden administration previously delayed providing ATACMS to Ukraine, citing concerns that drawing from those stocks could undermine U.S. military readiness. However, the U.S. maintains comparatively healthier supplies of the shorter-range Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS), also fired from HIMARS, providing commanders with more flexibility.
The most pressing concern involves air-defense interceptors used against cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, aircraft, and lethal drones. The U.S. has expended large numbers of Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors, consuming them faster than industry can replace them. To support Middle East operations, the Pentagon has shifted interceptor inventories from other regions, including stocks prepositioned for the Indo-Pacific. These transfers have left other combatant commands with thinner margins, particularly as the U.S. seeks to deter Chinese military action around Taiwan.
Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell stated, "America's military is the most powerful in the world and has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President's choosing. We have executed multiple successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the U.S. military possesses a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests."
The challenge remains one of time. In 2022, Elbridge Colby, now the undersecretary for policy at the Pentagon, noted that "a missile used in Europe can't be used in Asia." A year later, he argued that weapons useful for defeating a Chinese attack along the first island chain should be reserved for that purpose. Many of the weapons currently being fired in the Middle East cannot be replaced for years.
