Ukrainian military expert Olexandr Kovalenko has described Russia’s air defense system as being in a “catastrophic state,” suggesting that the pressure on Russian infrastructure will continue to escalate.
Kovalenko, speaking from Odesa, indicated that Ukraine is currently leveraging a critical window of opportunity before Russia can mobilize hundreds of thousands of additional soldiers. He noted significant changes on the combat zone, attributing them to the exhaustion of Russian forces, which he believes have been worn down since 2023 to a point where the army relies heavily on its infantry component and human resources.
The expert explained that Ukraine’s adoption of a defensive strategy in 2023 was a response to Russian offensives near Avdiivka and the delayed U.S. aid, which led to ammunition shortages. This strategy, however, was designed not only to hold front lines but also to maximally slow down and exhaust the enemy.
According to Kovalenko, the current campaign is unfolding precisely when the adversary is depleted and Ukraine has achieved technological superiority. This advantage is largely due to the effective use of medium-range drone technologies and the scaling up of impacts on Russian logistics. He highlighted that the vast numbers of Russian occupation forces, primarily infantry, are facing difficulties due to insufficient and delayed logistics.
Strikes targeting battlefield logistics are deemed crucial for Ukraine, aiming to halt Russian offensives and degrade their defensive capabilities. Kovalenko stated that a crisis in Russian defense is already evident in some sectors, creating opportunities for the Ukrainian army to transition to counter-actions.
Key weapons in these strikes include Hornet, RAM-2X, Darts, and Bulava drones, with Hornets being among the most widely deployed for medium-range and deeper strikes. The integration of artificial intelligence has significantly boosted the effectiveness of these strikes, enabling drones to operate autonomously and select targets even when communication signals are lost, thereby enhancing Ukraine’s technological success.
Intelligence from Western secret services is described as highly important, aiding in the planning of operations and verification of target information. This intelligence helps confirm the purpose of facilities, such as drone operator training schools, production sites, or storage locations, and the nature of their contents, whether supplies, ammunition, or fuel.
Kovalenko clarified that Ukraine’s attacks are not directed at Russian cities themselves but at specific production capacities and facilities within them. These targets include oil refineries, munitions factories, equipment plants, research institutes, oil depots, and logistics hubs. The objective is to destroy elements of Russia’s industrial and military infrastructure.
The priority is the complete destruction of the Russian Federation’s oil-refining sector. Another important direction is the destruction of the Russian military‑industrial complex. Many enterprises that do not formally appear to belong to it in fact supply it with their output, for example chemical components. A strike on a chemical plant that seemingly has no direct link to the military sphere can therefore be fully justified if its products are used in rocket fuel, in the manufacture of explosives for warheads of missile systems, shells and other production. Ukraine’s strategy consists of the gradual destruction of individual categories of Russian industry – oil refining, the military‑industrial sector, chemicals – as well as in targeting Russia’s scientific base, especially research institutes where new types of weapons and military technologies are developed.
The campaign is a collective effort involving Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, Kyrylo Budanov, representatives of the presidential administration, and Robert Brovdi “Madyar,” commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces. The actions of the General Staff, intelligence services, and all Ukrainian security structures are also vital in shaping a strategy to exhaust Russia both on the battlefield and in its rear, a strategy Kovalenko believes is proving effective.
The defensive strategy that Ukraine chose as its basis in 2023 took shape after the Russians went on the offensive near Avdiivka and, as a result of the aid blockade in Congress, the United States in effect delayed support for Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel for half a year. This caused an ammunition shortage for Ukraine, so we were forced to adopt a defensive posture and switch to a defensive-type strategy. At the same time, however, the goal of this strategy was not only to hold the front line, but also to slow down and exhaust the enemy as much as possible.
Why is this campaign only happening now?
