Germany is currently experiencing a brief respite from extreme temperatures, remaining on the cooler side of a high-pressure system. However, meteorologist Dominik Jung warns that this cooling is only temporary. While the most intense heat is currently concentrated over Spain and France, weather models suggest that the Azores high is poised to spread into central Europe once again. The first signs of this returning warmth are expected to reach the west and southwest regions of Germany by the end of next week.
The current lower temperatures, which have dropped below the 30-degree mark in many areas due to a north-westerly flow and an upper-level trough, feel unusually cool only because of the stark contrast to the extreme heat experienced earlier. Near thunderstorms, local temperatures have even dipped below 20 degrees, which remains within the range of normal to slightly below-average weather for the second half of July. Jung emphasizes that the perception of cold is largely a result of the preceding record-breaking heat, which saw temperatures reach 41.7 degrees at the end of June. That particular heatwave lasted approximately twelve days, marking one of the longest such events since the DWD heat warning system was established in 2005.
The shift in weather patterns has also heightened the risk of severe thunderstorms, particularly in the south and south-east of Germany. Upland regions in Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg, and parts of Saxony are at the highest risk, though vigorous storms could also develop along an air-mass boundary across the center of the country. Forecasters have issued warnings for localized severe weather, including the possibility of torrential rain, hail, and gale-force gusts. While thunderstorms may occur in northern and central Germany, they are generally expected to be less intense.
What remains most striking to meteorologists is the stubbornness of the current weather pattern. Jung notes that the area of high pressure rebuilds with surprising speed after every cool spell, causing summer to effectively snap back into heat mode. Adding to the difficulty of forecasting are the significant fluctuations between different weather models. At times, the American weather model has simulated extreme values of up to 47 degrees, which is roughly 20 degrees above the average of other calculations. Jung explains that these large jumps demonstrate how small atmospheric disturbances are currently complicating long-range predictions.
Looking ahead, the general trend indicates continued warmth and dryness. From approximately 21 July, temperatures could climb back into the 28 to 34-degree range, with local peaks reaching 38 degrees. This potential return of heat days and tropical nights may bring renewed focus to dry conditions across many regions. While the long-range outlook remains uncertain, as the spread of model outcomes increases beyond a one-week horizon, the consensus remains that summer shows no immediate signs of retreating.
Another striking feature are the strong fluctuations between individual weather models. Some runs have simulated extremely high values. At times, the American weather model has even produced outliers of up to 47 degrees – around 20 degrees above the average of many model calculations.
"You rarely see jumps like that. They show how much small disturbances in the atmosphere are currently making forecasting more difficult."
