Following the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats have secured control of both the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives. As of November 4, with 99% of the vote counted, 33 of the 35 Senate races on the ballot have been projected, with 20 of those contests resulting in Democratic victories. Voters in seven states successfully flipped previously Republican-held Senate seats to the Democratic Party. Notably, eight of these Democratic wins occurred in states that had supported Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi remain too close to call.
The election results demonstrate a significant shift in voter behavior compared to the 2024 presidential cycle. In states where Democrats secured Senate victories, their average margins were twice as large as the winning margins Kamala Harris achieved in 2024. Conversely, in states where Republicans won, their average margins were only half as large as those secured by Donald Trump in 2024. Across all states where voters changed their party preference between the 2024 presidential election and the 2026 midterms, the shift favored Democrats by approximately 20 percentage points.
Specific race data illustrates the erosion of Republican margins. In West Virginia, where Donald Trump won by 42 percentage points in 2024, Republican incumbent Senator Shelly Moore Capito saw her winning margin cut in half to about 20 points. In Alabama, Barry Moore won his Senate race by roughly 9 points, despite Donald Trump carrying the state by over 30 points in 2024. Similarly, in Florida, Republican Senator Ashley Moody won reelection by only 3 points, a sharp decline from the 13-point margin Donald Trump achieved in the state two years prior. In contrast, Democratic Senator Jack Reed outperformed Kamala Harris’ 2024 Rhode Island margin of 14 points by securing a 37-point victory in the midterms.
